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International Business Cycle Synchronization Since the 1870s: Evidence from a Novel Network Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Nikolaos Antonakakis

    (Vienna University of Economics and Business)

  • Periklis Gogas

    (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics)

  • Theophilos Papadimitriou

    (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics)

  • Georgios Sarantitis

    (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics)

Abstract

In this study, we examine the issue of business cycle synchronization from a historical perspective in 27 developed and developing countries. Based on a novel complex network approach, the Threshold-Minimum Dominating Set (T-MDS), our results reveal heterogeneous patterns of international business cycle synchronization during fundamental globalization periods since the 1870s. In particular, the proposed methodology reveals that worldwide business cycles de-coupled during the Gold Standard, though they were synchronized during the Great Depression. The Bretton Woods era was associated with a lower degree of synchronization as compared to that during the Great Depression, while worldwide business cycle synchronization increased to unprecedented levels during the latest period of floating exchange rates and the Great Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaos Antonakakis & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Georgios Sarantitis, 2015. "International Business Cycle Synchronization Since the 1870s: Evidence from a Novel Network Approach," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 2-2015, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:duthrp:2015_002
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    Cited by:

    1. Tamás Sebestyén & Zita Iloskics, 2020. "Do economic shocks spread randomly?: A topological study of the global contagion network," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-22, September.
    2. Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin & Fassas, Athanasios P. & Philippas, Dionisis, 2024. "A Chinese clout on energy exports some countries cannot shake off," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Schmidbauer, Harald & Rösch, Angi & Uluceviz, Erhan, 2017. "Frequency aspects of information transmission in a network of three western equity markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 486(C), pages 933-946.
    4. Amalia Repele & Sébastien Waelti, 2021. "Mapping the Global Business Cycle Network," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 739-760, September.
    5. Kang, Sang Hoon & Lahmiri, Salim & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Arreola Hernandez, Jose & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2020. "Inflation cycle synchronization in ASEAN countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    6. Zhiping Qiu & Sichao Mai, 2022. "Topological characteristics of international business cycle synchronization: A network analysis of the BRI economies," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(6), pages 1-17, June.
    7. Matesanz, David & Ortega, Guillermo J., 2016. "On business cycles synchronization in Europe: A note on network analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 287-296.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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