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The Synchronization of GDP Growth in the G7 during U.S. Recessions. Is this Time Different?

  • Nikolaos Antonakakis
  • Johann Scharler

Using the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model due to Engle (2002), we estimate time varying correlations of quarterly real GDP growth among the G7 countries. In general, we find that rather heterogeneous patterns of international synchronization exist during U.S. recessions. During the 2007 - 2009 recession, however, international co-movement increased substantially.

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Paper provided by FIW in its series FIW Working Paper series with number 049.

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Length: 12
Date of creation: Apr 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2010:i:049
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  1. Mario J. Crucini & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "What Are the Driving Forces of International Business Cycles?," NBER Working Papers 14380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Buch, Claudia M. & Carstensen, Kai & Schertler, Andrea, 2010. "Macroeconomic shocks and banks’ foreign assets," Munich Reprints in Economics 19988, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  3. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-50, July.
  4. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2009. "Financial Globalization, Financial Crises and Contagion," NBER Working Papers 15432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Terrones, Marco E., 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," IZA Discussion Papers 702, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  6. Marco Terrones & M. Ayhan Kose & Stijn Claessens, 2008. "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches, and Busts?," IMF Working Papers 08/274, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2005. "Breaks in the Variability and Comovement of G-7 Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 721-740, November.
  8. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2005. "Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 05/211, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  10. Jean Imbs, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," IMF Working Papers 03/81, International Monetary Fund.
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