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Finance and synchronization

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  • Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio

Abstract

In the workhorse model of international real business cycles, financial integration exacerbates the cycle asymmetry created by country-specific supply shocks. The prediction is identical in response to purely common shocks in the same model augmented with simple country heterogeneity (e.g., where depreciation rates or factor shares are different across countries). This happens because common shocks have heterogeneous consequences on the marginal products of capital across countries, which triggers international investment. In the data, filtering out common shocks requires therefore allowing for country-specific loadings. We show that finance and synchronization correlate negatively in response to such common shocks, consistent with previous findings. But fi- nance and synchronization correlate non-negatively, almost always positively, in response to purely country-specific shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2016. "Finance and synchronization," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86226, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:86226
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/86226/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Chris Otrok, "undated". "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Working Paper 164456, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    2. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area," NBER Chapters,in: Europe and the Euro, pages 141-167 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Luca Dedola & Giovanni Lombardo, 2012. "Financial frictions, financial integration and the international propagation of shocks," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 27(70), pages 319-359, April.
    4. Eric Monnet & Damien Puy, 2016. "Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization?," IMF Working Papers 16/54, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Gert Peersman & Frank Smets, 2005. "The Industry Effects of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(503), pages 319-342, April.
    6. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 78-121, March.
    7. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2005. "'Some contagion, some interdependence': More pitfalls in tests of financial contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1177-1199, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2017. "Synchronicity of real and financial cycles and structural characteristics in EU countries," CEIS Research Paper 414, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 25 Sep 2017.
    2. Michael A. Stemmer, 2017. "Revisiting Finance and Growth in Transition Economies - A Panel Causality Approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17022, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    3. repec:eee:jimfin:v:84:y:2018:i:c:p:42-57 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. José De Gregorio, 2018. "Productivity in Emerging Market Economies: Slowdown or Stagnation?," Working Papers wp471, University of Chile, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stochastic Discount Factor; Vector Autoregression; Shocks; Technology News; Monetary Policy; Cross-section; Stock Returns; Bond Returns;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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