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International comovements, business cycle and inflation: a historical perspective

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  • Mumtaz, Haroon

    (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)

  • Simonelli, Saverio

    (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)

  • Surico, Paolo

    (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)

Abstract

Using a dynamic factor model, we uncover four main empirical or international comovements in a long-run panel of real and nominal variables. First, the countribution of world comovements to domestic output growth has decreased over the post-WWII period. The contribution of regional comovements, however, has increased significantly. Second, the share of inflation variation due to a global factor has become larger since 1985. Third, over most of the post-WWII period, international comovements within regions have accounted for the bulk of fluctuations in business cycle and inflation. Fourth, prices have become significantly less countercyclical during the post-1984 sample, with the largest contribution due to external developments.

Suggested Citation

  • Mumtaz, Haroon & Simonelli, Saverio & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "International comovements, business cycle and inflation: a historical perspective," Discussion Papers 28, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:mpc:wpaper:0028
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output growth; inflation; geographic identification; dynamic factor model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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