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'N Sync: how do countries' economies move together?

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Connections between short-term fluctuations in one country's economic activity and those in the rest of world received renewed focus after the 2008/09 recession. This paper examines some of those connections using several statistical techniques.

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File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Analytical%20notes/2014/an2014-04.pdf
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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series with number AN2014/04.

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Length: 31 p
Date of creation: Aug 2014
Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbans:2014/04
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  1. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar Prasad, 2012. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence Or Decoupling?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 511-538, 05.
  2. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-775, August.
  3. Michael Reddell & Cath, Sleeman, 2008. "Some perspectives on past recessions," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 71, June.
  4. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 57-62, May.
  5. Daan Steenkamp, 2014. "Structural adjustment in New Zealand since the commodity boom," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2014/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  6. M. Gligor & M. Ausloos, 2007. "Cluster structure of EU-15 countries derived from the correlation matrix analysis of macroeconomic index fluctuations," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 57(2), pages 139-146, 05.
  7. Ausloos, M. & Lambiotte, R., 2007. "Clusters or networks of economies? A macroeconomy study through Gross Domestic Product," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 16-21.
  8. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "Editorial in "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15"," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 1-4 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2013. "Measuring the Dynamics of Global Business Cycle Connectedness," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-070, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  10. Mario Crucini & Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2011. "What are the driving forces of international business cycles?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 156-175, January.
  11. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  12. Robert A Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Heather Kirkham & Nathan McLellan & Jared Sharma, 2002. "A structural VAR model of the New Zealand business cycle," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/26, New Zealand Treasury.
  13. Ahmed, Shaghil & Ickes, Barry W. & Ping Wang & Byung Sam Yoo, 1993. "International Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 335-359, June.
  14. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth S. Rogoff (ed.), 2001. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262523140, July.
  15. Ayhan Kose, M. & Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H., 2008. "Understanding the evolution of world business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 110-130, May.
  16. Justiniano, Alejandro & Preston, Bruce, 2010. "Can structural small open-economy models account for the influence of foreign disturbances?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 61-74, May.
  17. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
  18. Matthew Greenwood‐Nimmo & Viet Hoang Nguyen & Yongcheol Shin, 2012. "Probabilistic forecasting of output growth, inflation and the balance of trade in a GVAR framework," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 554-573, 06.
  19. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, 09.
  20. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bern01-1, 01.
  21. Redelico, Francisco O. & Proto, Araceli N. & Ausloos, Marcel, 2009. "Hierarchical structures in the Gross Domestic Product per capita fluctuation in Latin American countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(17), pages 3527-3535.
  22. Güneş Kamber & Chris McDonald & Gael Price, 2013. "Drying out: Investigating the economic effects of drought in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2013/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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