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Measuring the Dynamics of Global Business Cycle Connectedness

  • Francis X. Diebold

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

  • Kamil Yilmaz

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Koc University)

Using a connectedness-measurement technology fundamentally grounded in modern network theory, we measure real output connectedness for a set of six developed countries, 1962-2010. We show that global connectedness is sizable and time-varying over the business cycle, and we study the nature of the time variation relative to the ongoing discussion about the changing nature of the global business cycle. We also show that connectedness corresponding to transmissions to others from the United States and Japan is disproportionately important.

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File URL: http://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/13-070.pdf
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Paper provided by Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania in its series PIER Working Paper Archive with number 13-070.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 17 Dec 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:13-070
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  1. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2010. "Short and long run causality measures: Theory and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(1), pages 42-58, January.
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2008. "Measuring financial asset return and volatility spillovers, with application to global equity markets," Working Papers 08-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  3. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  4. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
  5. S. Borağan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2010. "Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, pages 245-286 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Margaret McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  7. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  8. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2011. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Working Papers 11-45, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  9. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2003. "Breaks in the variability and co-movement of G-7 economic growth," International Finance Discussion Papers 786, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. S. Boragan Aruoba & Marco Terrones & M. Ayhan Kose & Francis X. Diebold, 2011. "Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring," IMF Working Papers 11/25, International Monetary Fund.
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