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Obstfeld and Rogoff׳s international macro puzzles: a quantitative assessment

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  • Eaton, Jonathan
  • Kortum, Samuel
  • Neiman, Brent

Abstract

Obstfeld and Rogoff (2001) propose that trade frictions lie behind key puzzles in international macroeconomics. We take a dynamic multicountry model of international trade, production, and investment to data from 19 countries to assess this proposition quantitatively. Using the framework developed in Eaton et al. (2016), we revisit the puzzles in a counterfactual world without trade frictions in manufactures. Removing these trade frictions goes a long way toward resolving a number of puzzles. The dependence of domestic investment on domestic saving falls by half or disappears entirely, mitigating the Feldstein and Horioka (1980) puzzle. Changes in nominal GDPs in U.S. dollars become less variable across countries and line up with changes in real GDPs as much as with real exchange rates, mitigating the exchange rate disconnect puzzle. Less dramatically, changes in consumption become more correlated across countries, mitigating the consumption correlations puzzle and changes in real exchange rates become less variable across countries, mitigating the relative purchasing power parity puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • Eaton, Jonathan & Kortum, Samuel & Neiman, Brent, 2016. "Obstfeld and Rogoff׳s international macro puzzles: a quantitative assessment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 5-23.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:72:y:2016:i:c:p:5-23
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2016.06.002
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    5. Li, Wei & Nie, Guangyu & Wang, Zi, 2020. "Trade, FDI, and Global Imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
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    9. Lee E. Ohanian & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria & Mark L. J. Wright, 2018. "Bad Investments and Missed Opportunities? Postwar Capital Flows to Asia and Latin America," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3541-3582, December.
    10. Nicholas Ford & Charles Yuji Horioka, 2017. "The ‘real’ explanation of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 95-97, January.
    11. Ricardo Reyes-Heroles, 2018. "Globalization and Structural Change in the United States: A Quantitative Assessment," 2018 Meeting Papers 1027, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Adams, Jonathan J. & Barrett, Philip, 2021. "Why are countries’ asset portfolios exposed to nominal exchange rates?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    14. Hanno Lustig & Robert J. Richmond, 2017. "Gravity in FX R-Squared: Understanding the Factor Structure in Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 23773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Clemens C. Struck, 2017. "Labor Market Frictions, Investment and Capital Flows," Working Papers 201729, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    16. Horioka, Charles Yuji & Ford, Nicholas, 2017. "The Solution to the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle," AGI Working Paper Series 2017-17, Asian Growth Research Institute.
    17. Nicholas Ford & Charles Yuji Horioka, 2017. "The ‘real’ explanation of the PPP puzzle," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 325-328, March.
    18. Go, Eugenia, 2020. "Over Land and Over Sea: Domestic Trade Frictions in the Philippines," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 611, Asian Development Bank.
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    20. Lee Ohanian & Diana Van Patten & Mark Wright & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria, 2019. "Bretton Woods and the Reconstruction of Europe," 2019 Meeting Papers 665, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International trade; Open-economy macroeconomics; Trade barriers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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