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Finance and Synchronization

Author

Listed:
  • Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi

    (Bank of England
    Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM))

  • Jean Imbs

    (Paris School of Economics
    Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR))

  • Jumana Saleheen

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

In the workhorse model of international real business cycles, financial integration exacerbates the cycle asymmetry created by country-specific supply shocks. The prediction is identical in response to purely common shocks in the same model augmented with simple country heterogeneity (e.g., where depreciation rates or factor shares are different across countries). This happens because common shocks have heterogeneous consequences on the marginal products of capital across countries, which triggers international investment. In the data, filtering out common shocks requires therefore allowing for country-specific loadings. We show that finance and synchronization correlate negatively in response to such common shocks, consistent with previous findings. But finance and synchronization correlate non-negatively, almost always positively, in response to purely country-specific shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & Jean Imbs & Jumana Saleheen, 2016. "Finance and Synchronization," Discussion Papers 1622, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
  • Handle: RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1622
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. International business cycle synchronization: what is the role of financial linkages?
      by bankunderground in Bank Underground on 2016-04-06 11:30:09

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    3. Bank for International Settlements, 2021. "Changing patterns of capital flows," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 66, June.
    4. Gong, Chi & Kim, Soyoung, 2018. "Regional business cycle synchronization in emerging and developing countries: Regional or global integration? Trade or financial integration?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 42-57.
    5. An, Jiyoun & Kim, Kyunghun & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2021. "Does debt market integration amplify the international transmission of business cycles during financial crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    6. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2017. "Synchronicity of real and financial cycles and structural characteristics in EU countries," CEIS Research Paper 414, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 25 Sep 2017.
    7. Michael Stemmer, 2017. "Revisiting Finance and Growth in Transition Economies - A Panel Causality Approach," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01524462, HAL.
    8. Claudio, João C. & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2020. "On the international dissemination of technology news shocks," IWH Discussion Papers 25/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    9. Beyer,Robert Carl Michael & Milivojevic,Lazar, 2020. "Dynamics and Synchronization of Global Equilibrium Interest Rates," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9489, The World Bank.
    10. José De Gregorio, 2018. "Productivity in Emerging-Market Economies: Slowdown or Stagnation?," Working Paper Series WP18-12, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    11. Martin R. Goetz & Juan Carlos Gozzi, 2020. "Financial Integration and the Co-Movement of Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States," International Finance Discussion Papers 1305, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Zouri, Stéphane, 2020. "Business cycles, bilateral trade and financial integration: Evidence from Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 25-43.
    13. Padhan, Rakesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2020. "Business cycle synchronization: Disentangling direct and indirect effect of financial integration in the Indian context," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 272-287.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial linkages; Business cycles synchronization; Contagion; Common shocks; Idiosyncratic shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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