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Trade Intensity and Output Synchronisation: On the Endogeneity Properties of EMU

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Roberta De Santis
  • Alessandro Girardi

Abstract

Using annual bilateral data over the period 1988-2011 for a panel of 24 industrialised and emerging economies, we analyse in a time-varying framework the determinants of output synchronisation in EMU (European Monetary Union) distinguishing between core and peripheral member states. The results support the specialisation paradigm rather than the endogeneity hypothesis. Evidence is found in the euro period of diverging patterns between the core and the peripheral EMU countries raising questions about the future stability of EMU.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Roberta De Santis & Alessandro Girardi, 2013. "Trade Intensity and Output Synchronisation: On the Endogeneity Properties of EMU," CESifo Working Paper Series 4172, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4172
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    2. Belke, Ansgar & Domnick, Clemens, 2018. "Trade and capital flows: Substitutes or complements? An empirical investigation," GLO Discussion Paper Series 269, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Tomas Adam & Robert Ambrisko & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Vilma Dingova & Dana Hajkova & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & David Kocourek & Lubos Komarek & Zlat, 2014. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2014," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as14 edited by Kamila Kulhava & Jakub Mateju, March.
    4. Cesaroni, T. & D'Elia, E. & De Santis, R., 2019. "Inequality in EMU: is there a core periphery dualism?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    5. Roberta De Santis & Tatiana Cesaroni, 2016. "Current Account ‘Core–Periphery Dualism’ in the EMU," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(10), pages 1514-1538, October.
    6. Vinokurov, Evgeny & Demidenko, Mikhail & Korshunov, Dmitry & Kovacs, Mihaly, 2017. "Customs unions, currency crises, and monetary policy coordination: The case of the Eurasian Economic Union," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 280-295.
    7. Bagnai, Alberto & Granville, Brigitte & Mongeau Ospina, Christian A., 2017. "Withdrawal of Italy from the euro area: Stochastic simulations of a structural macroeconometric model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 524-538.
    8. Ahlborn, Markus & Wortmann, Marcus, 2017. "Output gap similarities in Europe: Detecting country groups," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 305, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    9. Tatiana Cesaroni & Roberta De Santis, 2018. "Dynamics of net foreign asset components in the EMU," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 156, pages 268-283.
    10. Alberto Bagnai & Brigitte Granville & Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina, 2017. "Withdrawal of Italy from the Eurozone: stochastic simulations of a structural macroeconometric model," a/ Working Papers Series 1702, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    11. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Kamil Galuscak & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Kamila Kulhava , 2015. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2015," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as15 edited by Kamila Kulhava & Lucie Matejkova, March.
    12. Marcin Bielecki & Michał Brzoza‐Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa & Krzysztof Makarski, 2019. "Could the Boom‐Bust in the Eurozone Periphery Have Been Prevented?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(2), pages 336-352, March.
    13. Philip Arestis & Peter Phelps, 2016. "Endogeneity Analysis of Output Synchronization in the Current and Prospective EMU," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 525-543, May.
    14. Alberto Coco & Andrea Silvestrini, 2017. "The nature and propagation of shocks in the euro area: a comparative SVAR analysis," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1/2), pages 95-114.
    15. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Jan Bruha & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & David Kocourek & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Kamila Kulhava & Petr Kral & Ivana Kubicova & Ji, 2013. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2013," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as13 edited by Jakub Mateju & Kamila Kulhava, March.
    16. Igor Velickovski & Aleksandar Stojkov & Ivana Rajkovic, 2017. "DIS Union of the Core and the Periphery," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(6), pages 159-174.
    17. Ahlborn, Markus & Wortmann, Marcus, 2018. "The core‒periphery pattern of European business cycles: A fuzzy clustering approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 12-27.
    18. Cesaroni, Tatiana & De Santis, Roberta, 2015. "Current Account ‘Core-Periphery Dualism’ in the EMU," CEPS Papers 10317, Centre for European Policy Studies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    output synchronisation; trade intensity; endogeneity; European Monetary Union (EMU);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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