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Customs unions, currency crises, and monetary policy coordination: The case of the Eurasian Economic Union

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  • Vinokurov, Evgeny
  • Demidenko, Mikhail
  • Korshunov, Dmitry
  • Kovacs, Mihaly

Abstract

After achieving substantial progress in establishing a common customs territory and regulations, customs unions face potential disruptions due to a lack of monetary policy coordination. These disruptions might appear in the form of currency shocks and the ensuing trade conflicts. We approach this issue by looking at the case of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The volatility of national currencies in 2014–2015 resulted in sizable shifts in competitiveness, culminating in a currency crisis in some member states. This raises the questions of how to gradually achieve a more coordinated monetary policy, what monetary policy options are available, and what would be their relative impact on macroeconomic stability. Using a set of modeling tools and econometric models, we review three monetary regimes, which represent moves from fully independent exchange rate policy through increased policy coordination to joint exchange rate setting.

Suggested Citation

  • Vinokurov, Evgeny & Demidenko, Mikhail & Korshunov, Dmitry & Kovacs, Mihaly, 2017. "Customs unions, currency crises, and monetary policy coordination: The case of the Eurasian Economic Union," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 280-295.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:rujoec:v:3:y:2017:i:3:p:280-295
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2017.09.004
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    Keywords

    customs union; monetary policy; macroeconomic policy coordination; Eurasian Economic Union; monetary union.;

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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