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The Euro Adoption Debate Revisited: The Czech Case

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Abstract

Although price stability has been achieved in the euro area, the first ten years of the euro have not brought the expected long-term output growth benefits. The Czech Republic – an economy that has achieved price stability without the euro – should then reframe the debate about euro area membership in traditional terms of the exchange rate regime choice, focusing on macroeconomic volatilities in the two regimes. Our experiments show that inflation volatility in the Czech Republic is likely to increase following euro area accession. At the same time, euro area membership is not likely to fundamentally change the volatility of consumption growth. Using past developments, the size of the exchange rate shocks identified relative to the rest of the shocks is simply not high enough to rationalize the abandonment of the flexible exchange rate and independent monetary policy in favor of the fixed exchange rate regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaromír Hurník & Zdenìk Tùma & David Vávra, 2010. "The Euro Adoption Debate Revisited: The Czech Case," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(3), pages 194-212, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:60:y:2010:i:3:p:194-212
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    File URL: http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1185_0015-1920---vol60y2010is3pp194-212.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, April.
    2. Jaromír Hurník & Ondøej Kameník & Jan Vlèek, 2008. "The History of Inflation Targeting in the Czech Republic Through the Lens of a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(09-10), pages 454-469, December.
    3. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area," NBER Chapters,in: Europe and the Euro, pages 141-167 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jaromir Benes & Tibor Hledik & Michael Kumhof & David Vavra, 2005. "An Economy in Transition and DSGE: What the Czech National Bank’s New Projection Model Needs," Working Papers 2005/12, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    5. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of Monetary Unification," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt791143kp, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    6. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," NBER Working Papers 3949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Martin Feldstein, 1997. "The Political Economy of the European Economic and Monetary Union: Political Sources of an Economic Liability," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 23-42, Fall.
    8. Michal Andrle & Tibor Hledik & Ondra Kamenik & Jan Vlcek, 2009. "Implementing the New Structural Model of the Czech National Bank," Working Papers 2009/2, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    9. Tomáš Havránek, 2010. "Rose effect and the euro: is the magic gone?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(2), pages 241-261, June.
    10. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:rujoec:v:3:y:2017:i:3:p:280-295 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:ukb:journl:y:2015:i:233:p:39-53 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area; exchange rate regime choice; exchange rate shocks;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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