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The History of Inflation Targeting in the Czech Republic Through the Lens of a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

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Abstract

Using a dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated for the Czech Republic, we first estimate the impact of structural shocks on the observed realizations of the interest rate and inflation, while the main focus is put on the estimation of monetary policy shocks. These occur whenever monetary policy is not set in accordance with the observed state of the economy and the inflation target. Our results suggest that monetary policy was more restrictive than implied by the observed state of the economy and the inflation target in three periods: 1998Q2–1999Q1, 2001Q3–2003Q2, and 2004Q3–2005Q4. On the contrary, the period from 2003Q3 to 2004Q2 was characterized by relatively loose monetary policy. Based on the assumption that monetary policy focuses on a different inflation target than the officially announced one, we estimate the implicit trajectory of the inflation target for the Czech Republic. This implied target fluctuates between 2 and 3 percent in 2002–2007.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaromír Hurník & Ondøej Kameník & Jan Vlèek, 2008. "The History of Inflation Targeting in the Czech Republic Through the Lens of a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(09-10), pages 454-469, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:58:y:2008:i:9-10:p:454-469
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    1. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    2. Harald F. Uhlig, 1995. "A toolkit for analyzing nonlinear dynamic stochastic models easily," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 101, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    3. Tomáš Holub & Jaromír Hurník, 2008. "Ten Years of Czech Inflation Targeting: Missed Targets and Anchored Expectations," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 67-86, November.
    4. Kim, Jinill, 2003. "Functional equivalence between intertemporal and multisectoral investment adjustment costs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 533-549, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jaromír Hurník & Zdenìk Tùma & David Vávra, 2010. "The Euro Adoption Debate Revisited: The Czech Case," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(3), pages 194-212, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy shock; dynamic general equilibrium model; Kalman filtration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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