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The History of Inflation Targeting in the Czech Republic through Optic of a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

In: Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007

Author

Listed:
  • Jarek Hurnik
  • Ondra Kamenik
  • Jan Vlcek

Abstract

Using a dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated for the Czech Republic and the method of Kalman filtration we first estimate impact of structural shocks on the observed realization of interest rate and inflation, while the main focus is put on the estimation of monetary policy shocks. These occur whenever monetary policy is not set in accordance to the observed state of the economy and inflation target. Our results suggest that monetary policy was more restrictive than implied by the observed state of the economy and inflation target in three periods: from the second quarter of 1998 till the first quarter of 1999, from the third quarter of 2001 till the second quarter of 2003 and finally from the third quarter of 2004 till the end of 2005. In contrary, in period from the third quarter of 2003 till the second quarter of 2004 we identify looser monetary policy. Consequently and based on the assumption that monetary policy does not make mistakes, but focuses on a different inflation target than the officially announced one, we estimate an implicit trajectory of the inflation target. Inflation target that well fits the observed behaviour of the central bank is inflation targets fluctuating between 2 and 3 % since the year 2002.

Suggested Citation

  • Jarek Hurnik & Ondra Kamenik & Jan Vlcek, 2008. "The History of Inflation Targeting in the Czech Republic through Optic of a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 8, pages 102-116, Czech National Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnb:ocpubc:08
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harald F. Uhlig, 1995. "A toolkit for analyzing nonlinear dynamic stochastic models easily," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 101, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    2. Tomáš Holub & Jaromír Hurník, 2008. "Ten Years of Czech Inflation Targeting: Missed Targets and Anchored Expectations," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 67-86, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Juraj Antal & Zuzana Antonicova & Michal Hlavacek & Tomas Holub & Roman Horvath & Jaromir Hurnik & Ondrej Kamenik & Karel Musil & Lubos Ruzicka & Jal Vlcek, 2009. "CNB Economic Research Bulletin: Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 1, volume 7, number rb07/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Katerina Smidkova, March.
    2. Volha Audzei & Frantisek Brazdik, 2015. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Exchange Rate as a Shock Absorber," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(5), pages 391-410, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy shock; dynamic general equilibrium model; Kalman filtration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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