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Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Exchange Rate as a Shock Absorber

Listed author(s):
  • Volha Audzei

    ()

    (CERGE-EI, Prague)

  • Frantisek Brazdik

    ()

    (Czech National Bank)

We analyze the contribution of the real exchange rate to the macroeconomic volatility of Czech economy and its role in cushioning economic disturbances. Results from a two-country structural VAR model do not allow us to reject a shock-absorbing role of the real exchange rate for the Czech economy. This result is robust to model extensions. Further analysis shows that domestic monetary policy and the real exchange rate are responsive to asymmetric and real exchange rate shocks in the short term, while the contribution of non-policy shocks is prevailing in the long term. This supports the view that the Czech National Bank’s policy is predictable. Low transmission of a real exchange rate shock to output and price volatility is consistent with the theoretical role of the exchange rate as a shock absorber.

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Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 65 (2015)
Issue (Month): 5 (October)
Pages: 391-410

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Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:65:y:2015:i:5:p:391-410
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  1. Rafiq, M.S. & Mallick, S.K., 2008. "The effect of monetary policy on output in EMU3: A sign restriction approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1756-1791, December.
  2. Gert Peersman, 2011. "The Relative Importance of Symmetric and Asymmetric Shocks: The Case of United Kingdom and Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(1), pages 104-118, February.
  3. Renée Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-960, December.
  4. Rogers, John H., 1999. "Monetary shocks and real exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 269-288, December.
  5. Michal Andrle & Tibor Hledik & Ondra Kamenik & Jan Vlcek, 2009. "Implementing the New Structural Model of the Czech National Bank," Working Papers 2009/2, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  6. Michal Skorepa, 2008. "A Simple, Model-Independent Analysis of Reasons for Non-Fulfillment of the Declared Inflation Target," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 3, pages 35-46 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  7. Jarek Hurnik & Ondra Kamenik & Jan Vlcek, 2008. "The History of Inflation Targeting in the Czech Republic through Optic of a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 8, pages 102-116 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  8. Amisano, Gianni & Giammarioli, Nicola & Stracca, Livio, 2009. "EMU and the adjustment to asymmetric shocks: the case of Italy," Working Paper Series 1128, European Central Bank.
  9. Berg, Tim Oliver, 2010. "Exploring the international transmission of U.S. stock price movements," MPRA Paper 23977, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2005. "Markov-switching structural vector autoregressions: theory and application," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2005-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  11. Farrant, Katie & Peersman, Gert, 2006. "Is the Exchange Rate a Shock Absorber or a Source of Shocks? New Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 939-961, June.
  12. Juraj Antal & Zuzana Antonicova & Jan Babecky & Michal Hlavacek & Tomas Holub & Roman Horvath & Jarek Hurnik & Ondra Kamenik & Karel Musil & Jiri Podpiera & Lubos Ruzicka & Michal Skorepa & Katerina S, 2008. "Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number 01 edited by Katerina Smidkova.
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