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Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Exchange Rate as a Shock Absorber

Author

Listed:
  • Volha Audzei

    () (CERGE-EI, Prague)

  • Frantisek Brazdik

    () (Czech National Bank)

Abstract

We analyze the contribution of the real exchange rate to the macroeconomic volatility of Czech economy and its role in cushioning economic disturbances. Results from a two-country structural VAR model do not allow us to reject a shock-absorbing role of the real exchange rate for the Czech economy. This result is robust to model extensions. Further analysis shows that domestic monetary policy and the real exchange rate are responsive to asymmetric and real exchange rate shocks in the short term, while the contribution of non-policy shocks is prevailing in the long term. This supports the view that the Czech National Bank’s policy is predictable. Low transmission of a real exchange rate shock to output and price volatility is consistent with the theoretical role of the exchange rate as a shock absorber.

Suggested Citation

  • Volha Audzei & Frantisek Brazdik, 2015. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Exchange Rate as a Shock Absorber," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(5), pages 391-410, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:65:y:2015:i:5:p:391-410
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rafiq, M.S. & Mallick, S.K., 2008. "The effect of monetary policy on output in EMU3: A sign restriction approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1756-1791, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Skorepa, Michal & Komarek, Lubos, 2015. "Sources of asymmetric shocks: The exchange rate or other culprits?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 654-674.
    2. repec:cnb:ocpubv:as17 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Frantisek Brazdik & Jan Bruha & Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Tibor Hledik & Tomas Holub & Zuzana Humplova & Frantisek Kopriva & Jiri Polansky & Marek Rusnak & Jaromir Tonner, 2015. "Forecasting," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 13, number rb13/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak.
    4. Michal Andrle & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jaromir Baxa & Jan Bruha & Peter Claeys & Jan Filacek & Jakub Mateju & Miroslav Plasil & Serhat Solmaz & Borek Vasicek, 2015. "Monetary Policy Challenges in a Low-Inflation Environment," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 13, number rb13/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Michal Franta.
    5. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb15/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb15/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Jan Bruha & Jiri Polansky & Jaromir Tonner & Stanislav Tvrz & Osvald Vasicek & Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak & Lubomir Lizal & Diana Zigraiova, 2016. "Topics in Labour Markets," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 14, number rb14/1 edited by Jan Babecky.
    8. Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Alexis Derviz & Vaclav Hausenblas & Michal Hlavacek & Mark Joy & Narcisa Kadlcakova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Tomas Konecny & Ivana Kubicova & Jitka Lesanovska, 2014. "Macroprudential Research: Selected Issues," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 12, number rb12/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Borek Vasicek.
    9. Katerina Arnostova & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Martin Gurtler & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Petr Kr, 2016. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2016," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as16 edited by Katerina Arnostova & Lucie Matejkova.
    10. Miroslav Plasil & Jakub Seidler & Petr Hlavac & Volha Audzei & Jakub Mateju & Michal Kejak & Simona Malovana & Jan Frait, 2016. "Financial Cycles and Macroprudential and Monetary Policies," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 14, number rb14/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Michal Hlavacek.
    11. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Kamil Galuscak & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Kamila Kulhava , 2015. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2015," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as15 edited by Kamila Kulhava & Lucie Matejkova.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Czech Republic; exchange rates; sign restrictions; structural vector autoregression;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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