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The Third Round of the Euro Area Enlargement: Are the Candidates Ready?

Author

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  • Milan Deskar-Škrbić

    (The Croatian National Bank, Croatia)

  • Karlo Kotarac

    (The Croatian National Bank, Croatia)

  • Davor Kunovac

    (The Croatian National Bank, Croatia)

Abstract

In this paper, we study the readiness of Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania to adopt the common monetary policy of the ECB in the context of the third round of euro area enlargement. Following the later stages of the optimal currency area (OCA) theory we focus on the coherence of economic shocks between candidate countries and the euro area and analyse the relevance of euro area shocks for key macroeconomic variables in these countries. Our results, based on a novel empirical approach, show that the overall importance of those shocks that are relevant for the ECB is fairly similar in candidate countries and the euro area. The cost of joining the euro area should, therefore, not be pronounced, at least from the aspect of the adoption of the common counter-cyclical monetary policy. This conclusion holds for all three candidates, despite important differences in monetary and exchange rate regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Milan Deskar-Škrbić & Karlo Kotarac & Davor Kunovac, 2019. "The Third Round of the Euro Area Enlargement: Are the Candidates Ready?," Working Papers 57, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    • Handle: RePEc:hnb:wpaper:57
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    8. Petar Sorić & Ivana Lolić & Marija Logarušić, 2022. "Economic Sentiment and Aggregate Activity: A Tale of Two European Cycles," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 445-462, March.
    9. Milan Deskar-Škrbić & Davor Kunovac, 2020. "Twentieth Anniversary of the Euro: Why are Some Countries Still Not Willing to Join? Economists’ View," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(2), pages 242-262, June.
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    11. Kunovac, Davor & Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez & Sun, Yiqiao, 2022. "A new optimum currency area index for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2730, European Central Bank.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area enlargement; economic shocks; BVAR; common monetary policy; Mundellian trilemma;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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