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Spillovers from the ECB's non-standard monetary policy measures on south-eastern Europe

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  • Moder, Isabella

Abstract

This paper is the first to comprehensively assess the impact of the euro area’s non-standard monetary policy measures on south-eastern Europe. By employing bilateral BVAR models, I am able to estimate the response of output and prices for each country, as well as to shed more light on potential shock transmission channels. The results suggest that the ECB’s non-standard monetary policy measures have had pronounced price effects on all south-eastern European countries, and output effects on approximately half of them. While I also find exports to be a relevant transmission channel in most cases, the interbank market rate responds significantly only in a few cases as the region was subject to significant cross-border bank deleveraging after the crisis. Furthermore, the results suggest that the exchange rate regime does not play a role in determining the sign and magnitude of price level and output responses. This is in line with the absence of distinct exchange rate responses in the model output, suggesting that exchange rates did not act as buffers for spillovers of euro area non-standard monetary policy measures on south-eastern Europe. JEL Classification: C11, C32, E52, F42

Suggested Citation

  • Moder, Isabella, 2017. "Spillovers from the ECB's non-standard monetary policy measures on south-eastern Europe," Working Paper Series 2095, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172095
    Note: 2769592
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    Cited by:

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    3. Antal, Mark & Kaszab, Lorant, 2022. "Spillovers from the European Central Bank's asset purchases to countries in Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Luca Dedola & Georgios Georgiadis & Johannes Gräb & Arnaud Mehl, 2018. "Does a Big Bazooka Matter? Central Bank Balance-Sheet Policies and Exchange Rates," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_024, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    5. Andrejs Zlobins, 2023. "Is There a Portfolio Rebalancing Channel of QE in Latvia?," Working Papers 2023/05, Latvijas Banka.
    6. Andrea Colabella, 2019. "Do the ECB’s monetary policies benefit emerging market economies? A GVAR analysis on the crisis and post-crisis period," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1207, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Valentina-Ioana Mera & Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi & Camélia Turcu, 2020. "Economic Sentiments and Money Demand Stability in the CEECs," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 343-369, April.
    8. Bacchiocchi, Emanuele & Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin, 2024. "Uncertainty spill-overs: When policy and financial realms overlap," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    9. Andrejs Zlobins, 2020. "Country-level effects of the ECB’s expanded asset purchase programme," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 20(2), pages 187-217.
    10. Léonore Raguideau-Hannotin, 2021. "Monetary autonomy of CESEE countries and nominal convergence in EMU: a cointegration analysis with structural breaks," EconomiX Working Papers 2021-20, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    11. Martin Feldkircher & Helene Schuberth, 2023. "Understanding Monetary Spillovers in Highly Integrated Regions: The Case of Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(4), pages 859-893, August.
    12. Lucian Croitoru, 2021. "Responding to Criticism of Monetary Policy in Romania in the Decade Surrounding the 2008 Financial Crisis (2004-2013)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 39-58, December.
    13. Wojciech Grabowski & Ewa Stawasz-Grabowska, 2021. "How have the European central bank’s monetary policies been affecting financial markets in CEE-3 countries?," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(1), pages 43-83, March.
    14. El-Shagi, Makram & Tochkov, Kiril, 2022. "Shadow of the colossus: Euro area spillovers and monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    15. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Dedola, Luca & Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek & Stracca, Livio & Strasser, Georg, 2020. "Monetary policy and its transmission in a globalised world," Working Paper Series 2407, European Central Bank.
    16. Isabella Moder, 2023. "The transmission of euro area monetary policy to financially euroized countries," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 718-751, November.
    17. Kabundi, Alain & De Simone, Francisco Nadal, 2020. "Monetary policy and systemic risk-taking in the euro area banking sector," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 736-758.
    18. Nikolaos Petrakis & Christos Lemonakis & Christos Floros & Constantin Zopounidis, 2022. "Eurozone Stock Market Reaction to Monetary Policy Interventions and Other Covariates," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-19, January.
    19. Glocker, Christian & Piribauer, Philipp, 2021. "Digitalization, retail trade and monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    20. Feldkircher, Martin & Gruber, Thomas & Huber, Florian, 2020. "International effects of a compression of euro area yield curves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    21. Nikolaos Petrakis & Christos Lemonakis & Christos Floros & Constantin Zopounidis, 2022. "Greek Banking Sector Stock Reaction to ECB’s Monetary Policy Interventions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, October.
    22. Ernest Gnan & Claudia Kwapil & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2018. "Monetary policy after the crisis: mandates, targets, and international linkages," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2/18, pages 8-33.
    23. Geis, André & Moder, Isabella & Schuler, Tobias, 2020. "Who’s afraid of euro area monetary tightening? CESEE shouldn’t," Working Paper Series 2416, European Central Bank.
    24. Benecká, Soňa & Fadejeva, Ludmila & Feldkircher, Martin, 2020. "The impact of euro Area monetary policy on Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1310-1333.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    BVAR; EU integration; international shock transmission; unconventional monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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