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The transmission of foreign shocks to South Eastern European economies: A Bayesian VAR approach

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  • Petrevski, Goran
  • Exterkate, Peter
  • Tevdovski, Dragan
  • Bogoev, Jane

Abstract

The paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of foreign shocks in three South-East European (SEE) economies: Croatia, Macedonia and Bulgaria. In this regard, we investigate the transmission of several eurozone shocks (output gap, money market rates and inflation) on various macroeconomic variables in the aforementioned countries (output, inflation, money market rates and budget deficits). We trace the effects of foreign shocks on the basis of impulse response functions obtained from the Bayesian Vector Auto Regressions (VARs) separately for each country. The main findings from our study are: first, economic expansion in the eurozone has strong output and inflation effects on SEE economies, implying some degree of synchronization of business cycles; second, eurozone inflation is instantly and to a great extent transmitted to domestic inflation, suggesting that inflation in the SEE economies is mostly driven by foreign inflation; third, domestic money market rates are not closely linked with eurozone money markets; fourth, monetary policy in the SEE countries does not seem to be responsive to eurozone inflation shocks; and fifth, the fiscal authorities attempt to offset the spillover effects from both economic expansion and monetary tightening in the eurozone.

Suggested Citation

  • Petrevski, Goran & Exterkate, Peter & Tevdovski, Dragan & Bogoev, Jane, 2015. "The transmission of foreign shocks to South Eastern European economies: A Bayesian VAR approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 632-643.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:39:y:2015:i:4:p:632-643
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2015.04.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Berisha Edmond, 2017. "ECB Monetary Policy Actions and the Economic Conditions of a Non-Euro Member: The Case of Croatia," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 1-10, June.
    2. Isabella Moder, 2019. "Spillovers from the ECB's Non-standard Monetary Policy Measures on Southeastern Europe," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(4), pages 127-163, October.
    3. Rafael Ravnik & Nikola Bokan, 2018. "Quarterly Projection Model for Croatia," Surveys 34, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Bayesian Vector Autoregression; Exogenous shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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