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How Important Are Foreign Shocks in Small Open Economy? The Case of Slovakia

In this paper, we provide evidence on the nature and the relative importance of domestic and foreign shocks in Slovak economy based on block-restriction vector autoregression model in 1999-2007. We document well-functioning monetary transmission mechanism in Slovakia. Subject to various sensitivity checks, we find that contractionary monetary policy shock has a temporary negative effect on the degree of economic activity and price level. We find that using output gap instead of GDP alleviates the price puzzle. In general, prices are driven mainly by foreign factors and the European Central Bank monetary policy shock on Slovak prices is more powerful than that of the National Bank of Slovakia. Slovak central bank interest rate policy seems to follow the ECB’s interest rates. On the other hand, spectacular Slovak economic growth is primarily driven by domestic factors suggesting the positive role of recently undertaken Slovak economic reforms.

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Paper provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies in its series Working Papers IES with number 2008/21.

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Length: 23pages
Date of creation: Sep 2008
Date of revision: Sep 2008
Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2008_21
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  1. Bartosz Mackowiak, 2005. "What does the Bank of Japan do to East Asia?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-059, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  2. Magdalena Borys & Roman Horváth & Michal Franta, 2009. "The effects of monetary policy in the Czech Republic: an empirical study," Empirica, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 419-443, November.
  3. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2007. "Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 13542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Crucini, Mario J, 2001. "Comment on Has Monetary Policy Been so Bad that It Is Better to Get Rid of It? The Case of Mexico," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 434-39, May.
  5. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
  6. Del Negro, Marco & Obiols-Homs, Francesc, 2001. "Has Monetary Policy Been so Bad that It Is Better to Get Rid of It? The Case of Mexico," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 404-33, May.
  7. Giordani, Paolo, 2004. "An alternative explanation of the price puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1271-1296, September.
  8. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
  9. Bartosz Mackowiak, 2006. "External Shocks, U.S. Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Markets," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-026, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  10. Elbourne, Adam & de Haan, Jakob, 2006. "Financial structure and monetary policy transmission in transition countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 1-23, March.
  11. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 0091, European Central Bank.
  12. Paolo Giordani, 2004. "Evaluating New-Keynesian Models of a Small Open Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 713-733, 09.
  13. Marek Jarocinski, 2004. "Responses to Monetary Policy Shocks in the East and the West of Europe: A Comparison," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0287, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  14. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
  15. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
  16. Fabio Canova, 2005. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 229-251.
  17. Zha, Tao, 1999. "Block recursion and structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 291-316, June.
  18. Mojon, Benoît & Peersman, Gert, 2001. "A VAR description of the effects of monetary policy in the individual countries of the euro area," Working Paper Series 0092, European Central Bank.
  19. Kim, Soyoung, 2001. "International transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Evidence from VAR's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 339-372, October.
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