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Monetary transmission and the financial sector in the Czech Republic

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  • Tomáš Havránek
  • Roman Horváth

    ()

  • Jakub Matějů

Abstract

In this paper, we (1) examine the interactions of financial variables and the macroeconomy within the block-restriction vector autoregression model and (2) evaluate to what extent the financial variables improve the forecasts of GDP growth and inflation. For this reason, various financial variables are examined, including those unexplored in previous literature, such as the share of liquid assets in the banking industry and the loan loss provision rate. Our results suggest that financial variables have a systematic and statistically significant effect on macroeconomic fluctuations. In terms of forecast evaluation, financial variables in general seem to improve the forecast of macroeconomic variables, but the predictive performance of individual financial variables varies over time, even though it strengthens during the 2008–2009 crisis. The results give some support for the risk-taking channel of monetary policy, as the level of the monetary policy rate is positively associated with the loan loss provision rate of commercial banks. Finally, a more stable financial system is found to contribute to faster economic growth. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Tomáš Havránek & Roman Horváth & Jakub Matějů, 2012. "Monetary transmission and the financial sector in the Czech Republic," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 135-155, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:45:y:2012:i:3:p:135-155
    DOI: 10.1007/s10644-011-9106-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Rusnák, Marek, 2016. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in real time," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 26-39.
    2. Jan Bruha, 2011. "Retail Credit Premiums and Macroeconomic Developments," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2010/2011, chapter 0, pages 133-140 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    3. Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Marek Rusnák, 2016. "Forecasting Czech GDP Using Mixed-Frequency Data Models," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(2), pages 165-185, December.
    4. repec:mes:eaeuec:v:52:y:2014:i:4:p:32-46 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Hamid Baghestani & Liliana Danila, 2014. "Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Forecasting in the Czech Republic: Do Analysts Know Better than a Random Walk?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(4), pages 282-295, September.
    6. Kolcunova, Dominika & Havranek, Tomas, 2018. "Estimating the Effective Lower Bound for the Czech National Bank's Policy Rate," EconStor Preprints 175753, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    7. Horvath, Roman & Petrovski, Dragan, 2013. "International stock market integration: Central and South Eastern Europe compared," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 81-91.
    8. Jakub Rysanek & Jaromir Tonner & Stanislav Tvrz & Osvald Vasicek, 2012. "Monetary Policy Implications of Financial Frictions in the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(5), pages 413-429, November.
    9. Kamil Galuscak & Adam Gersl & Marcela Gronychova & Petr Hlavac & Petr Jakubik & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler, 2014. "Stress-Testing Analyses of the Czech Financial System," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 12, number rb12/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath.
    10. repec:wdi:papers:2011-1028 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:2017:y:2017:i:3:id:608:p:257-268 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Katerina Arnostova & Jozef Barunik & Jan Filacek & Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Roman Horvath & Filip Novotny & Marie Rakova & Lubos Ruzicka & Branislav Saxa & Katerina Smidkova & Peter Toth, 2012. "Macroeconomic Forecasting: Methods, Accuracy and Coordination," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 10, number rb10/1 edited by Jan Babecky.
    13. Robert Ambrisko & Vitezslav Augusta & Jan Babecky & Michal Franta & Dana Hajkova & Petr Kral & Jan Libich & Pavla Netusilova & Milan Rikovsky & Jakub Rysanek & Pavel Soukup & Petr Stehlik & Vilem Vale, 2013. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 11, number rb11/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak.
    14. Michal Franta & Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak, 2014. "Evaluating changes in the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 827-842, May.
    15. Jaromir Baxa & Jiri Bohm & Roman Horvath & Lubos Komarek & Petr Kral & Magdalena Morgese Borys & Filip Rozsypal & Branislav Saxa & Borek Vasicek, 2011. "Monetary Policy Analysis in a Central Bank," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 9, number rb09/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath.
    16. Niyati Bhanja & Arif Dar, 2015. "“The beauty of gold is, it loves bad news”: evidence from three major gold consumers," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 187-208, November.
    17. Jose Peydro Alcalde & Sona Benecka & Alexis Derviz & Adam Gersl & Tomas Holub & Roman Horvath & Petr Jakubik & Narcisa Liliana Kadlcakova & Dorota Kowalczyk & Ivana Kubicova & Steven Ongena & Jakub Ry, 2012. "Financial Stability and Monetary Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 10, number rb10/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath.
    18. Hamid Baghestani & Liliana Danila, 2014. "On the Accuracy of Analysts’ Forecasts of Inflation in an Emerging Market Economy," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(4), pages 32-46, July.
    19. Roman Horvath, 2012. "Do Confidence Indicators Help Predict Economic Activity? The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(5), pages 398-412, November.
    20. Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Alexis Derviz & Vaclav Hausenblas & Michal Hlavacek & Mark Joy & Narcisa Kadlcakova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Tomas Konecny & Ivana Kubicova & Jitka Lesanovska, 2014. "Macroprudential Research: Selected Issues," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 12, number rb12/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Borek Vasicek.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic and financial linkages; Vector autoregressions; Forecasting; E44; E58; E47; G17;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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