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Causes of Deviations of Inflation from CNB Targets: An Empirical Analysis

In: Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007

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  • Tomas Holub

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the causes of deviations of inflation from the CNB targets. In the short term, shocks relating to prices of agricultural producers represent the most important factor. In the medium-term horizon, foreign exchange shocks form the most important factor. At the same time, it could not be proved that monetary policy would create any major shocks contributing to the non-fulfilment of inflation targets, although its certain role cannot be excluded either.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomas Holub, 2008. "Causes of Deviations of Inflation from CNB Targets: An Empirical Analysis," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 4, pages 47-56, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:ocpubc:04
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tomáš Holub & Jaromír Hurník, 2008. "Ten Years of Czech Inflation Targeting: Missed Targets and Anchored Expectations," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 67-86, November.
    2. Adam Geršl & Tomáš Holub, 2006. "Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(4), pages 475-491, October.
    3. Zuzana Antonicova & Karel Musil & Lubos Ruzicka & Jan Vlcek, 2008. "Evaluation of the Quality and Success Rate of Forecasts: A Historic Overview," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 7, pages 86-101, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dominika Kolcunova & Tomas Havranek, 2018. "Estimating the Effective Lower Bound on the Czech National Bank’s Policy Rate," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(6), pages 550-577, December.
    2. Roman Horvath, 2008. "Reasons of Undershooting the Inflation Target in the Czech Republic: The Role of Inflation Expectations," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 10, pages 131-142, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    3. Roman Horváth, 2008. "Undershooting of the Inflation Target in the Czech Republic: The Role of Inflation Expectations," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(09-10), pages 482-492, December.
    4. Tomáš Havránek & Roman Horváth & Jakub Matějů, 2012. "Monetary transmission and the financial sector in the Czech Republic," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 135-155, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation targeting; VAR model; exchange rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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