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Balance Sheet Implications of the Czech National Bank's Exchange Rate Commitment

Author

Listed:
  • Michal Franta
  • Tomas Holub
  • Branislav Saxa

Abstract

We present projections of the Czech National Bank's balance sheet after the discontinuation of the exchange rate commitment. Our model addresses the situation of a large central bank balance sheet with assets consisting almost exclusively of foreign exchange reserves in the circumstances of a catching-up economy exhibiting an exchange rate appreciation trend. Apart from the baseline projection, several counter-factual scenarios are discussed. The scenarios concern the evolution of the balance sheet in the cases of no exchange rate commitment and a commitment with earlier discontinuation. The simulated counter-factual duration of negative CNB equity, and thus the period of no profit distribution to the government, does not differ substantially from the baseline. The fiscal implications of the exchange rate commitment are thus estimated to be relatively small and related only to the period after the year 2030. Our stochastic simulations, however, show that the uncertainty bands are very wide. In addition, we show that the simulation tool can be employed to discuss the consequences of a long-run decline in currency in circulation, the composition of the asset side and the resumption of foreign exchange income sales by the central bank.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Franta & Tomas Holub & Branislav Saxa, 2018. "Balance Sheet Implications of the Czech National Bank's Exchange Rate Commitment," Working Papers 2018/10, Czech National Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2018/10
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    File URL: https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/economic-research/.galleries/research_publications/cnb_wp/cnbwp_2018_10.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ales Bulir & Jan Vlcek, 2019. "Monetary Policy Is Not Always Systematic and Data-Driven: Evidence from the Yield Curve," Working Papers 2019/3, Czech National Bank.
    2. Jan Bruha & Jaromir Tonner, 2018. "An Exchange Rate Floor as an Instrument of Monetary Policy: An Ex-Post Assessment of the Czech Experience," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(6), pages 537-549, December.
    3. Vesna Martin, 2018. "The Exchange Rate Commitment As Additional Instrument Of Monetary Policy In Czech Republic, Switzerland And Israel," Ekonomske ideje i praksa, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, issue 31, pages 41-57, December.
    4. Jan Frait & Marek Mora, 2020. "From float to currency floor and back to float: the Czech National Bank’s temporary exchange rate commitment," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial market development, monetary policy and financial stability in emerging market economies, volume 113, pages 121-131, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank balance sheet; deterministic simulations; stochastic simulations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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