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The Exchange Rate as an Instrument at Zero Interest Rates: The Case of the Czech Republic

Author

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  • Michal Franta
  • Tomas Holub
  • Petr Kral
  • Ivana Kubicova
  • Katerina Smidkova
  • Borek Vasicek

Abstract

This study examines the use of the exchange rate by the Czech National Bank as a monetary policy instrument at the zero lower bound on interest rates. It provides a review of the economic literature on unconventional monetary policy instruments and particularly on the possibility of using the exchange rate. It explains the CNB’s reasons for further easing monetary policy and for choosing the exchange rate instrument and its specific level, and discusses its expected benefits in the case of the Czech Republic. It also explains why the CNB ultimately decided to transparently declare a one-sided exchange rate commitment with potentially unlimited foreign exchange interventions. The article concludes by assessing the impacts of the exchange rate weakening on the Czech economy to date, as compared to what the CNB had expected, and by describing the public debate of the CNB’s action and related changes in its communication strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Franta & Tomas Holub & Petr Kral & Ivana Kubicova & Katerina Smidkova & Borek Vasicek, 2014. "The Exchange Rate as an Instrument at Zero Interest Rates: The Case of the Czech Republic," Research and Policy Notes 2014/03, Czech National Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnb:rpnrpn:2014/03
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    Cited by:

    1. Dominika Kolcunova & Tomas Havranek, 2018. "Estimating the Effective Lower Bound on the Czech National Bank’s Policy Rate," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(6), pages 550-577, December.
    2. Vesna Martin, 2018. "The Exchange Rate Commitment As Additional Instrument Of Monetary Policy In Czech Republic, Switzerland And Israel," Ekonomske ideje i praksa, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, issue 31, pages 41-57, December.
    3. Gregor, Jiří & Melecký, Martin, 2018. "The pass-through of monetary policy rate to lending rates: The role of macro-financial factors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 71-88.
    4. Michal Franta & Tomas Holub & Branislav Saxa, 2018. "Balance Sheet Implications of the Czech National Bank's Exchange Rate Commitment," Working Papers 2018/10, Czech National Bank.
    5. Michal Skořepa & Vladimír Tomšík & Jan Vlcek, 2016. "Impact of the CNB's exchange rate commitment: pass-through to inflation," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 153-167, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Mr. Joshua Felman & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Evan C Tanner & Mr. Jaromir Benes & Ali Alichi & Charles Freedman & Mr. David Vavra & Hou Wang & Irene Feng, 2015. "Frontiers of Monetary Policymaking: Adding the Exchange Rate as a Tool to Combat Deflationary Risks in the Czech Republic," IMF Working Papers 2015/074, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Jan Bruha & Jaromir Tonner, 2018. "An Exchange Rate Floor as an Instrument of Monetary Policy: An Ex-Post Assessment of the Czech Experience," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(6), pages 537-549, December.
    8. Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Helene Schuberth (ed.), 2015. "The Challenge of Economic Rebalancing in Europe," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 16651.
    9. Katerina Arnostova & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Martin Gurtler & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Petr Kr, 2016. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2016," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as16 edited by Katerina Arnostova & Lucie Matejkova, March.
    10. Jan Frait & Marek Mora, 2020. "From float to currency floor and back to float: the Czech National Bank’s temporary exchange rate commitment," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial market development, monetary policy and financial stability in emerging market economies, volume 113, pages 121-131, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Kamil Galuscak & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Kamila Kulhava , 2015. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2015," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as15 edited by Kamila Kulhava & Lucie Matejkova, March.
    12. Pavel Potužák, 2018. "Stimuluje spotřebu v situaci nulové nominální úrokové míry zvýšení inflačních očekávání? [Does an Increase in Inflation Expectations Stimulate Consumption at the Zero Lower Bound?]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(6), pages 751-775.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetric exchange rate commitment; deflation; exchange rate; foreign exchange interventions; inflation expectations; monetary policy; unconventional instruments; zero lower bound;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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