IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/iecepo/v2y2005i2p127-151.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Price expectations and consumption under deflation: evidence from Japanese household survey data

Author

Listed:
  • Masahiro Hori

    ()

  • Satoshi Shimizutani

    ()

Abstract

The Japanese economy has experienced price deflation since the mid-1990s. Despite the importance of overcoming deflation, there has been little recent research on price expectations in Japan. This paper takes advantage of an original and rich quarterly household-level data set from the "Kokumin Seikatsu Monitors" to estimate average price expectations, examine the factors that affect price expectations, and examine how changes in price expectations have affected household consumption. Our estimates indicate that average price expectations ranged from minus 0.2 to zero percent in 2001 and 2002. However, there was an increase to 1 percent in the first quarter of 2003, followed by a decline to 0.2 percent in the second quarter, and a steady increase toward 0.8 percent by the first quarter of 2004. Price expectations depend on current price movements and lagged expectations. A series of quantitative easing monetary policies were not very effective in changing the price expectations, since the policy announcements caused revision of price expectations only for small portion, i.e., 5-10% of people surveyed. The jump observed in the first quarter of 2003 was a reaction to the outbreak of the Iraq war. Our study also confirms that deflationary expectations discourage household consumption, mainly durable consumption, by delaying the timing of purchase, suggesting that the deflationary expectations should be upwardly revised to restore vital Japanese economy.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Masahiro Hori & Satoshi Shimizutani, 2005. "Price expectations and consumption under deflation: evidence from Japanese household survey data," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 127-151, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:2:y:2005:i:2:p:127-151
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-005-0030-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10368-005-0030-4
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    2. Kitamura, Yukinobu, 1997. "Indexed Bonds and Monetary Policy: The Real Interest Rate and the Expected Rate of Inflation," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 15(1), pages 1-25, May.
    3. Kitamura, Yukinobu, 2004. "Information Content of Inflation-Indexed Bond Prices: Evaluation of U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 22(3), pages 115-143, October.
    4. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information: A Model of Monetary Nonneutrality and Structural Slumps," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1941, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    5. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1978. "The Household Balance Sheet and the Great Depression," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(04), pages 918-937, December.
    6. HORI Masahiro & SHIMIZUTANI Satoshi, 2003. "What Changes Deflationary Expectations? Evidence from Japanese Household-level Data," ESRI Discussion paper series 065, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    7. repec:ime:imemes:v:22:y:2004:i:3:p:115-43 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. SHIMIZUTANI Satoshi & YOGI Tatsuhiro, 2003. "Currency Devaluation and Price Expectation:Lessons from Okinawa in the 1970s(in Japanese)," ESRI Discussion paper series 030, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    9. John M. Roberts, 1998. "Inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-138, May.
    11. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1977. "What Depressed the Consumer? The Household Balance Sheet and the 1973-75 Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 8(1), pages 123-174.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Comment la consommation réagit-elle à la déflation ?
      by Martin Anota in D'un champ l'autre on 2015-03-03 03:30:23

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hori, Masahiro & Kawagoe, Masaaki, 2013. "Inflation Expectations Of Japanese Households: Micro Evidence From A Consumer Confidence Survey," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 54(1), pages 17-38, June.
    2. Davis, J. Scott, 2015. "The asymmetric effects of deflation on consumption spending: Evidence from the great depression," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 105-108.
    3. Michal Franta & Tomas Holub & Petr Kral & Ivana Kubicova & Katerina Smidkova & Borek Vasicek, 2014. "The Exchange Rate as an Instrument at Zero Interest Rates: The Case of the Czech Republic," Research and Policy Notes 2014/03, Czech National Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:2:y:2005:i:2:p:127-151. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.