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News on Inflation and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Pfajfar, D.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

  • Santoro, E.

Abstract

Abstract: This paper examines the nexus between news coverage on inflation and households' inflation expectations. In doing so, we test the epidemiological foundations of the sticky information model (Carroll, 2003, 2006). We use both aggregate and household-level data from the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan. We highlight a fundamental disconnection between news on inflation, consumers' frequency of expectation updating and the accuracy of their expectations. Our evidence provides at best weak support to the epidemiological framework, as most of the consumers who update their expectations do not revise them towards professional forecasters' mean forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2012. "News on Inflation and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations," Discussion Paper 2012-048, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:515ee09e-b946-439f-afff-d348a491b752
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Doms & Norman J. Morin, 2004. "Consumer sentiment, the economy, and the news media," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
    2. Ricardo Nunes, 2009. "On the Epidemiological Microfoundations of Sticky Information," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(5), pages 643-657, October.
    3. Lanne, Markku & Luoma, Arto & Luoto, Jani, 2009. "A naïve sticky information model of households' inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1332-1344, June.
    4. Author-Name: Alan S. Blinder & Alan B. Krueger, 2004. "What Does the Public Know about Economic Policy, and How Does It Know It?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(1), pages 327-397.
    5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    6. Doepke Joerg & Dovern Jonas & Fritsche Ulrich & Slacalek Jiri, 2008. "The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-23, March.
    7. repec:pri:cepsud:99blinderkrueger is not listed on IDEAS
    8. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information: A Model of Monetary Nonneutrality and Structural Slumps," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1941, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    9. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-291, March.
    10. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298.
    11. Souleles, Nicholas S, 2004. "Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 39-72, February.
    12. Alan Blinder & Alan Krueger, 2004. "What Does the Public Know about Economic Policy, and How Does It Know It?," Working Papers 875, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
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    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Consumer Forecast Revisions: Is Information Really so Sticky?
      by noreply@blogger.com (Carola) in Quantitative Ease on 2017-09-14 21:21:00

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:wsi:serxxx:v:62:y:2017:i:04:n:s0217590817400306 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. David-Jan Jansen & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2017. "News Consumption, Political Preferences, and Accurate Views on Inflation," Research Papers in Economics 2017-03, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    3. Lena Dräger & Michael Lamla, 2013. "Imperfect Information and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Microdata," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201301, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    4. repec:aut:wpaper:201906 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Lei, Chengyao & Lu, Zhe & Zhang, Chengsi, 2015. "News on inflation and the epidemiology of inflation expectations in China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 644-653.
    6. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:2017:y:2017:i:3:id:614:p:286-299 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Menz, Jan-Oliver & Poppitz, Philipp, 2013. "Households' disagreement on inflation expectations and socioeconomic media exposure in Germany," Discussion Papers 27/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Berge, Travis J., 2018. "Understanding survey-based inflation expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 788-801.
    9. Ueno, Yuko, 2014. "Updating Behavior of Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Japanese Household Panel Data," CIS Discussion paper series 617, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    10. Damjan Pfajfar & John M. Roberts, 2018. "The Role of Expectations in Changed Inflation Dynamics," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-062, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
    11. repec:eee:ecolet:v:161:y:2017:i:c:p:112-115 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Pfajfar, Damjan & Žakelj, Blaž, 2014. "Experimental evidence on inflation expectation formation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 147-168.
    13. Lena Draeger & Michael J. Lamla, 2013. "Imperfect information and inflation expectations," KOF Working papers 13-329, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    14. repec:bla:obuest:v:79:y:2017:i:6:p:933-968 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:eee:jmacro:v:53:y:2017:i:c:p:162-175 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Michael J. Lamla & Lena Draeger, 2013. "Anchoring of Consumers' Inflation Expectations," KOF Working papers 13-339, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    17. repec:eee:ecmode:v:73:y:2018:i:c:p:100-116 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J., 2012. "Updating inflation expectations: Evidence from micro-data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 807-810.
    19. Lena Dräger & Michael J. Lamla, 2013. "Anchoring of Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Microdata," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201305, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    20. Jha, Saakshi & Sahu, Sohini & Chattopadhyay, Siddhartha, 2019. "Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations and Internet Search- An Analysis for India," MPRA Paper 92666, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Xu, Yingying & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Su, Chi-Wei, 2016. "Modeling heterogeneous inflation expectations: empirical evidence from demographic data?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 153-163.
    22. Yosuke Uno & Saori Naganuma & Naoko Hara, 2018. "New Facts about Firms' Inflation Expectations: Simple Tests for a Sticky Information Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-14, Bank of Japan.
    23. Karolina Tura-Gawron & Maria Siranova & Karol Fisikowski, 2018. "ARE CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AN INTERNATIONAL PHENOMENON? Results of spatial panel regressions models," GUT FME Working Paper Series A 50, Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Survey Expectations; News; Information Stickiness;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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