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News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities

Author

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  • Vegard H. Larsen

  • Leif Anders Thorsrud

  • Julia Zhulanova

Abstract

We investigate the role played by the media in the expectations formation process of households. Using a news-topic-based approach we show that news types the media choose to report on, e.g., (Internet) technology, health, and politics, are good predictors of households' stated in ation expectations. In turn, in a noisy information model setting, augmented with a simple media channel, we document that the underlying time series properties of relevant news topics explain the timevarying information rigidity among households. As such, we not only provide a novel estimate showing the degree to which information rigidities among households vary across time, but also provide, using a large news corpus and machine learning algorithms, robust and new evidence highlighting the role of the media for understanding infl ation expectations and information rigidities.

Suggested Citation

  • Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud & Julia Zhulanova, 2019. "News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities," Working Papers No 03/2019, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:bny:wpaper:0075
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    1. Daniel J. Lewis & Christos Makridis & Karel Mertens, 2019. "Do Monetary Policy Announcements Shift Household Expectations?," Working Papers 1906, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 17 Jan 2020.
    2. Bertsch, Christoph & Hull, Isaiah & Zhang, Xin, 2021. "Narrative fragmentation and the business cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    3. Ryan Chahrour & Kristoffer Nimark & Stefan Pitschner, 2021. "Sectoral Media Focus and Aggregate Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(12), pages 3872-3922, December.
    4. Saskia ter Ellen & Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2019. "Narrative monetary policy surprises and the media," Working Papers No 06/2019, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    5. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2021. "The reaction of inflation forecasts to news about the Fed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 256-264.

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