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News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities

Author

Listed:
  • Vegard H. Larsen
  • Leif Anders Thorsrud
  • Julia Zhulanova

Abstract

We investigate the role played by the media in the expectations formation process of households. Using a news-topic-based approach we show that news types the media choose to report on, e.g., (Internet) technology, health, and politics, are good predictors of households' stated in ation expectations. In turn, in a noisy information model setting, augmented with a simple media channel, we document that the underlying time series properties of relevant news topics explain the timevarying information rigidity among households. As such, we not only provide a novel estimate showing the degree to which information rigidities among households vary across time, but also provide, using a large news corpus and machine learning algorithms, robust and new evidence highlighting the role of the media for understanding infl ation expectations and information rigidities.

Suggested Citation

  • Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud & Julia Zhulanova, 2019. "News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities," Working Papers No 03/2019, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  • Handle: RePEc:bny:wpaper:0075
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    10. Saskia Ter Ellen & Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2022. "Narrative Monetary Policy Surprises and the Media," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(5), pages 1525-1549, August.
    11. Yuting Chen & Don Bredin & Valerio Potì & Roman Matkovskyy, 2022. "COVID risk narratives: a computational linguistic approach to the econometric identification of narrative risk during a pandemic," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 17-61, March.
    12. Lange, Kai-Robin & Reccius, Matthias & Schmidt, Tobias & Müller, Henrik & Roos, Michael W. M. & Jentsch, Carsten, 2022. "Towards extracting collective economic narratives from texts," Ruhr Economic Papers 963, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    13. Diana Gabrielyan & Lenno Uusküla, 2022. "Inflation Expectations And Consumption With Machine Learning," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 142, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
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    15. Jon Ellingsen & Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2020. "News Media vs. FRED-MD for Macroeconomic Forecasting," CESifo Working Paper Series 8639, CESifo.
    16. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2021. "The reaction of inflation forecasts to news about the Fed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 256-264.
    17. Andres Algaba & David Ardia & Keven Bluteau & Samuel Borms & Kris Boudt, 2020. "Econometrics Meets Sentiment: An Overview Of Methodology And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 512-547, July.
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    20. Sonan Memon, 2021. "Machine Learning for Economists: An Introduction," PIDE Knowledge Brief 2021:33, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
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    Keywords

    Expectations; Media; Machine Learning; Inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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