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Information rigidity in growth forecasts: Some cross-country evidence

  • Loungani, Prakash
  • Stekler, Herman
  • Tamirisa, Natalia

We document information rigidity in forecasts of real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We also investigate: (i) whether rigidities differ across countries, particularly between advanced countries and emerging markets; (ii) whether rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of recessions and crises; and (iii) how quickly forecasters incorporate news about growth in other countries into their growth forecasts, with a focus on the way in which advanced countries’ growth forecasts incorporate news about emerging market growth, and vice versa.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207013000435
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 29 (2013)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 605-621

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:29:y:2013:i:4:p:605-621
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.02.006
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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