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Information rigidity in growth forecasts: Some cross-country evidence

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  • Loungani, Prakash
  • Stekler, Herman
  • Tamirisa, Natalia

Abstract

We document information rigidity in forecasts of real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We also investigate: (i) whether rigidities differ across countries, particularly between advanced countries and emerging markets; (ii) whether rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of recessions and crises; and (iii) how quickly forecasters incorporate news about growth in other countries into their growth forecasts, with a focus on the way in which advanced countries’ growth forecasts incorporate news about emerging market growth, and vice versa.

Suggested Citation

  • Loungani, Prakash & Stekler, Herman & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2013. "Information rigidity in growth forecasts: Some cross-country evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 605-621.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:29:y:2013:i:4:p:605-621 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.02.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Trabelsi, Emna, 2016. "Central bank transparency and the consensus forecast: What does The Economist poll of forecasters tell us?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, pages 338-359.
    2. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2017. "Fiscal Activism and Price Volatility: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies," Working Papers Department of Economics 2017/04, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    3. Antonella Tutino & Anton Cheremukhin, 2012. "Asymmetric Firm Dynamics under Rational Inattention," 2012 Meeting Papers 161, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Ghada Fayad & Roberto Perrelli, 2014. "Growth Surprises and Synchronized Slowdowns in Emerging Markets––An Empirical Investigation," IMF Working Papers 14/173, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Dovern, Jonas & Fritsche, Ulrich & Loungani, Prakash & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2015. "Information rigidities: Comparing average and individual forecasts for a large international panel," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 144-154.
    6. repec:spr:portec:v:16:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10258-017-0129-x is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Dovern, Jonas & Fritsche, Ulrich & Loungani, Prakash & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2015. "Information rigidities: Comparing average and individual forecasts for a large international panel," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 144-154.
    8. Sourafel Girma & Sandra Lancheros & Alejandro Riaño, 2016. "Global Engagement and Returns Volatility," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, pages 814-833.
    9. Chen, Qiwei & Costantini, Mauro & Deschamps, Bruno, 2016. "How accurate are professional forecasts in Asia? Evidence from ten countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 154-167.
    10. Messina, Jeffrey D. & Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, Herman, 2015. "What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 54-62.
    11. Joao Tovar Jalles, 2015. "How Quickly is News Incorporated in Fiscal Forecasts?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2802-2812.
    12. João Sousa & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Asset Returns Under Model Uncertainty: Eveidence from the euro area, the U.K and the U.S," NIPE Working Papers 21/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    13. Jordan, Steven J. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Forecasting market returns: bagging or combining?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 102-120.
    14. Jalles, João Tovar, 2017. "On the rationality and efficiency of inflation forecasts: Evidence from advanced and emerging market economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, pages 175-189.
    15. Sheng, Xuguang (Simon), 2015. "Evaluating the economic forecasts of FOMC members," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 165-175.
    16. repec:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:4:p:760-769 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Peter Tillmann, 2011. "Reputation and Forecast Revisions: Evidence from the FOMC," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201128, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    18. Jalles, João Tovar & Karibzhanov, Iskander & Loungani, Prakash, 2015. "Cross-country evidence on the quality of private sector fiscal forecasts," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 186-201.
    19. Cheremukhin, Anton & Tutino, Antonella, 2016. "Information rigidities and asymmetric business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 142-158.
    20. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2017. "Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 760-769.

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