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Information rigidity in growth forecasts: Some cross-country evidence

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  • Loungani, Prakash
  • Stekler, Herman
  • Tamirisa, Natalia

Abstract

We document information rigidity in forecasts of real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We also investigate: (i) whether rigidities differ across countries, particularly between advanced countries and emerging markets; (ii) whether rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of recessions and crises; and (iii) how quickly forecasters incorporate news about growth in other countries into their growth forecasts, with a focus on the way in which advanced countries’ growth forecasts incorporate news about emerging market growth, and vice versa.

Suggested Citation

  • Loungani, Prakash & Stekler, Herman & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2013. "Information rigidity in growth forecasts: Some cross-country evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 605-621.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:29:y:2013:i:4:p:605-621
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.02.006
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