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Bias in macroeconomic forecasts

  • Batchelor, Roy

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 23 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 189-203

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:23:y:2007:i:2:p:189-203
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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  1. Owen Lamont, 1995. "Macroeconomics Forecasts and Microeconomic Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 5284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. John R. Graham, 1999. "Herding among Investment Newsletters: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 237-268, 02.
  3. Estrin, Saul & Holmes, Peter, 1990. "Indicative planning in developed economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 531-554, December.
  4. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
  5. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2006. "Forecast accuracy and product differentiation of Japanese Institutional Forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 395-401.
  6. Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2006. "Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 491-534, 07.
  7. Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar, 2006. "How Far Ahead Can We Forecast? Evidence From Cross-country Surveys," Discussion Papers 06-04, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  8. Loungani, Prakash, 2001. "How accurate are private sector forecasts? Cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts of output growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 419-432.
  9. Ehrbeck, Tilman & Waldmann, Robert, 1996. "Why Are Professional Forecasters Biased? Agency versus Behavioral Explanations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(1), pages 21-40, February.
  10. Michel Beine & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Hélène Colas, 2003. "Imitation Amongst Exchange-Rate Forecasters: Evidence from Survey Data," Working Papers 2003-08, CEPII research center.
  11. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sorensen, 2001. "The Strategy of Professional Forecasting," Discussion Papers 01-09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  12. Heinemann, Friedrich, 2005. "Planning or propaganda? An evaluation of Germany's medium-term budgetary planning," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-12, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  13. Batchelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1991. "Blue Chip Rationality Tests," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(4), pages 692-705, November.
  14. Sushil Bikhchandani & Sunil Sharma, 2001. "Herd Behavior in Financial Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(3), pages 1.
  15. Batchelor, Roy A. & Dua, Pami, 1990. "Product differentiation in the economic forecasting industry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 311-316, October.
  16. David Laster & Paul Bennett & In Sun Geoum, 1999. "Rational Bias In Macroeconomic Forecasts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 293-318, February.
  17. Tom Stark, 1997. "Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters in the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 97-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  18. Ashiya, Masahiro & Doi, Takero, 2001. "Herd behavior of Japanese economists," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 343-346, November.
  19. Prakash Loungani & Bharat Trehan, 2002. "Predicting when the economy will turn," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar15.
  20. Jordi Pons-Novell, 2003. "Strategic bias, herding behaviour and economic forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 67-77.
  21. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 2003. "Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 313-351, 02.
  22. Terence Lim, 2001. "Rationality and Analysts' Forecast Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 369-385, 02.
  23. Francis, Jennifer & Douglas Hanna, J. & Philbrick, Donna R., 1997. "Management communications with securities analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 363-394, December.
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