Estimating International Transmission of Shocks Using GDP Forecasts: India and Its Trading Partners
Using a Factor Structural Vector Autoregressive (FSVAR) model and monthly GDP growth forecasts during 1995-2003, we find that Indian economy responds largely to domestic and Asian common shocks, and much less to shocks the from the West. However, when we exclude the Asian crisis period from our sample, the Western factor comes out as strong as the Asian factor contributing 16% each to the Indian real GDP growth, suggesting that the dynamics of transmission mechanism is time-varying. Our methodology on the use of forecast data can help policy makers of especially developing countries with frequent economic crises and data limitations to adjust their policy targets in real time.
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (518) 442-4735
Fax: (518) 442-4736
|Order Information:|| Postal: Department of Economics, BA 110 University at Albany State University of New York Albany, NY 12222 U.S.A.|
Web: http://www.albany.edu/economics/research/workingp/index.shtml Email:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999.
"Paper tigers?: A model of the Asian crisis,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1211-1236, June.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "Paper Tigers? A Model of the Asian Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "Paper tigers? A model of the Asian crisis," Research Paper 9822, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "News or Noise? An Analysis of GNP Revisions," NBER Working Papers 1939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Poonam Gupta & James P. F. Gordon, 2004. "Understanding Indiaâ€™s Services Revolution," IMF Working Papers 04/171, International Monetary Fund.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Roberto Cardarelli, 2004. "Economic Integration, Business Cycle, and Productivity in North America," IMF Working Papers 04/138, International Monetary Fund.
- Davies, Anthony & Lahiri, Kajal, 1995. "A new framework for analyzing survey forecasts using three-dimensional panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 205-227, July.
- David Laster & Paul Bennett & In Sun Geoum, 1999. "Rational Bias In Macroeconomic Forecasts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 293-318, February.
- Ehrbeck, Tilman & Waldmann, Robert, 1996. "Why Are Professional Forecasters Biased? Agency versus Behavioral Explanations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(1), pages 21-40, February.
- Sunghyun Henry Kim & M. Ayhan Kose & Michael G. Plummer, 2003. "Dynamics of Business Cycles in Asia: Differences and Similarities," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 462-477, 08.
- Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2001. "A Leading Index for India's Exports," Occasional papers 1, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
- Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1998. "Sources and propagation of international output cycles: Common shocks or transmission?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 133-166, October.
- Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul & Rüffer, Rasmus & Vitale, Giovanni, 2003. "Is Economic Activity in the G7 Synchronized? Common Shocks versus Spillover Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 4119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ahmed, Shaghil, 2003. "Sources of economic fluctuations in Latin America and implications for choice of exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 181-202, October.
- Grace Juhn & Prakash Loungani, 2002. "Further Cross-Country Evidence on the Accuracy of the Private Sector's Output Forecasts," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 4.
- Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
- Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001.
"A real-time data set for macroeconomists,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
- C. John McDermott & Eswar Prasad & Pierre-Richard AgÃ©nor, 1999.
"Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries; Some Stylized Facts,"
IMF Working Papers
99/35, International Monetary Fund.
- Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-85, May.
- Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998.
"Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models,"
Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Selover, David D., 1999. "International Interdependence and Business Cycle Transmission in ASEAN," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 230-253, September.
- Christopher D. Carroll, 2003.
"Macroeconomic Expectations Of Households And Professional Forecasters,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298, February.
- Christopher Carroll, 2003. "RATS code for Macroeconomic Expectations Of Households And Professional Forecasters," QM&RBC Codes 36, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Christopher D Carroll, 2002. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," Economics Working Paper Archive 477, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- William D. Nordhaus, 1985.
"Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts and Applications,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
774, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Todd E. Clark & Kwanho Shin, 1998. "The sources of fluctuations within and across countries," Research Working Paper 98-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2001. "Analysis of a panel of UK macroeconomic forecasts," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages S37-S55.
- Loungani, Prakash, 2001.
"How accurate are private sector forecasts? Cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts of output growth,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 419-432.
- Prakash Loungani, 2000. "How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts; Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth," IMF Working Papers 00/77, International Monetary Fund.
- Ghatak, Anita & Ghatak, Subrata, 1996. "Budgetary deficits and Ricardian equivalence: The case of India, 1950-1986," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 267-282, May.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003.
"Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics,"
NBER Working Papers
9859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, 09.
- Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar, 2006.
"How Far Ahead Can We Forecast? Evidence From Cross-country Surveys,"
06-04, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
- Isiklar, Gultekin & Lahiri, Kajal, 2007. "How far ahead can we forecast? Evidence from cross-country surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 167-187.
- Isiklar, Gultekin & Lahiri, Kajal & Loungani, Prakash, 2006.
"How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross-country surveys,"
22065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar & Prakash Loungani, 2006. "How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross-country surveys," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 703-725.
- McAdam, Peter, 2003.
"US, Japan and the euro area: comparing business-cycle features,"
Working Paper Series
0283, European Central Bank.
- Peter McAdam, 2007. "USA, Japan and the Euro Area: Comparing Business-Cycle Features," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 135-156.
- Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
- Batchelor, Roy, 2007. "Bias in macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 189-203.
- Khan, Hashmat & Zhu, Zhenhua, 2006. "Estimates of the Sticky-Information Phillips Curve for the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 195-207, February.
- Anita Ghatak, 1997. "Unit roots and structural breaks: The case of India 1900-1988," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 289-300.
- Kajal Lahiri, 2005. "Analysis of Panel Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(4), pages 1093-1095.
- Anita Ghatak, 1998. "Aggregate consumption functions for India: A cointegration analysis under structural changes, 1919-86," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 475-488.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nya:albaec:10-06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John Bailey Jones)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.