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Economic Integration, Business Cycle, and Productivity in North America

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Ayhan Kose
  • Mr. Roberto Cardarelli

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of the major Canada-U.S. trade agreements on the dynamics of business cycles and productivity in Canada. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and its predecessor, the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA), have led to a substantial expansion of trade flows. Although common factors have played a larger role in explaining business cycles in Canada and the United States since the early 1980s, country-specific and idiosyncratic factors remain important for Canada. At the same time, while increased trade integration seems to have positively contributed to total factor productivity of Canadian industries, the persistence of structural differences between the two countries has prevented convergence of aggregate labor productivity. While these findings seem to weigh against moving toward a monetary union, they also suggest that substantial benefits could be reaped from further reducing remaining barriers to trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Ayhan Kose & Mr. Roberto Cardarelli, 2004. "Economic Integration, Business Cycle, and Productivity in North America," IMF Working Papers 2004/138, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2004/138
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar, 2010. "Estimating International Transmission of Shocks Using GDP Forecasts: India and Its Trading Partners," Discussion Papers 10-06, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Trade Costs and Real Exchange Rate Volatility: The Role of Ricardian Comparative Advantage," IMF Working Papers 2005/005, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Sébastien LaRochelle‐Côté, 2007. "Tariff reduction and employment in Canadian manufacturing," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(3), pages 843-860, August.
    4. Sonia de Lucas Santos & M. Jesús Delgado Rodríguez & Inmaculada Álvarez Ayuso & José Luis Cendejas Bueno, 2011. "Los ciclos económicos internacionales: antecedentes y revisión de la literatura," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 34(95), pages 73-84, Agosto.
    5. Ageliki Anagnostou & Ioannis Panteladis & Maria Tsiapa, 2015. "Disentangling different patterns of business cycle synchronicity in the EU regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 615-641, August.
    6. Fidel Aroche, 2018. "Estudio de la productividad y de la evolución económica en América del Norte. Una perspectiva estructural/A study on productivity and the economic evolution in North America. A structural perspecti," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 33(1), pages 151-191.
    7. Jean Louis, Rosmy & Brown, Ryan & Balli, Faruk, 2011. "On the feasibility of monetary union: Does it make sense to look for shocks symmetry across countries when none of the countries constitutes an optimum currency area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2701-2718.
    8. Mr. Marcello M. Estevão & Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2010. "Canada's Potential Growth: Another Victim of the Crisis?," IMF Working Papers 2010/013, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Ramon A. CASTILLO PONCE & Ramon de Jesus RAMIREZ ACOSTA, 2008. "Economic Integration In North America," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(2), pages 111-122.
    10. Louis, Rosmy J & Brown, Ryan & Balli, Faruk, 2009. "Are Mortgage Rates Bubbling Up Trouble for Canadas Metropolitan Housing Sector?," MPRA Paper 17245, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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