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Business Cycle Synchronization During US Recessions Since the Beginning of the 1870's

  • Nikolaos Antonakakis

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)

This paper examines the synchronization of business cycles across the G7 countries during US recessions since the 1870's. Using a dynamic measure of business cycle synchronization, results depend on the globalisation period under consideration. On average, US recessions have significantly positive effects on business cycle co-movements only in the period following the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates, while strongly decoupling effects among the G7 economies are documented during recessions that occurred under the classical Gold Standard. During the 2007-2009 recession, business cycles co-movements increased to unprecedented levels.

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File URL: http://epub.wu.ac.at/3522/1/wp140.pdf
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Paper provided by Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number wuwp140.

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Date of creation: Apr 2012
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Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp140
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Web page: http://www.wu.ac.at/economics/en

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  1. Imbs, Jean, 2010. "The First Global Recession in Decades," CEPR Discussion Papers 7973, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Marco Terrones & Ayhan Kose & Stijn Claessens, 2008. "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?," IMF Working Papers 08/274, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2005. "Breaks in the Variability and Comovement of G-7 Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 721-740, November.
  4. Yetman, James, 2011. "Exporting recessions: International links and the business cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 12-14, January.
  5. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Johann Scharler, 2010. "The Synchronization of GDP Growth in the G7 during U.S. Recessions. Is this Time Different?," FIW Working Paper series 049, FIW.
  6. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 2010. "Financial globalization, financial crises and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 24-39, January.
  7. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Johann Scharler, 2012. "The synchronization of GDP growth in the G7 during US recessions," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 7-11, January.
  8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Ayhan Kose, M. & Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H., 2008. "Understanding the evolution of world business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 110-130, May.
  10. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
  11. Artis, Michael J & Chouliarakis, George & Harischandra, PKG, 2011. "Business Cycle Synchronization Since 1880," CEPR Discussion Papers 8347, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Marco Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," IMF Working Papers 03/27, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-50, July.
  14. Mario Crucini & Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2011. "What are the driving forces of international business cycles?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 156-175, January.
  15. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  16. N/A, 2009. "On the Recession," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 24(3), pages 253-253, May.
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