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Business Cycle Synchronization During US Recessions Since the Beginning of the 1870's

  • Nikolaos Antonakakis

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)

This paper examines the synchronization of business cycles across the G7 countries during US recessions since the 1870's. Using a dynamic measure of business cycle synchronization, results depend on the globalisation period under consideration. On average, US recessions have significantly positive effects on business cycle co-movements only in the period following the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates, while strongly decoupling effects among the G7 economies are documented during recessions that occurred under the classical Gold Standard. During the 2007-2009 recession, business cycles co-movements increased to unprecedented levels.

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File URL: http://epub.wu.ac.at/3522/1/wp140.pdf
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Paper provided by Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number wuwp140.

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Date of creation: Apr 2012
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Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp140
Note: PDF Document
Contact details of provider: Postal: Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020 Vienna, Austria
Web page: http://www.wu.ac.at/economics/en

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  1. Vincenzo Quadrini & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2010. "Financial Globalization, Financial Crises and Contagion," 2010 Meeting Papers 841, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Johann Scharler, 2010. "The Synchronization of GDP Growth in the G7 during U.S. Recessions. Is this Time Different?," FIW Working Paper series 049, FIW.
  3. Marco Terrones & M. Ayhan Kose & Stijn Claessens, 2008. "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches, and Busts?," IMF Working Papers 08/274, International Monetary Fund.
  4. repec:van:wpaper:0815 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Mario J. Crucini & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "What Are the Driving Forces of International Business Cycles?," NBER Working Papers 14380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Jean Imbs, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," IMF Working Papers 03/81, International Monetary Fund.
  7. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 57-62, May.
  8. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2003. "Breaks in the variability and co-movement of G-7 economic growth," International Finance Discussion Papers 786, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Michael Artis & George Chouliarakis & P. K. G. Harischandra, 2011. "Business Cycle Synchronization Since 1880," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(2), pages 173-207, 03.
  10. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-50, July.
  11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  13. Yetman, James, 2011. "Exporting recessions: International links and the business cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 12-14, January.
  14. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2005. "Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 05/211, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Artis, Michael J & Chouliarakis, George & Harischandra, PKG, 2011. "Business Cycle Synchronization Since 1880," CEPR Discussion Papers 8347, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Imbs, Jean, 2010. "The First Global Recession in Decades," CEPR Discussion Papers 7973, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Johann Scharler, 2012. "The synchronization of GDP growth in the G7 during US recessions," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 7-11, January.
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