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Business Cycle Synchronization Since 1880

  • MICHAEL ARTIS
  • GEORGE CHOULIARAKIS
  • P. K. G. HARISCHANDRA

This paper studies the international business cycle behaviour across 25 advanced and emerging market economies for which 125 years of annual GDP data are available. The picture that emerges is more fragmented than the one drawn by studies that focused on a narrower set of advanced market economies. The paper offers evidence in favour of a secular increase in international business cycle synchronization within a group of European and a group of English-speaking economies that started during 1950-1973 and accelerated since 1973. Yet, in other regions of the world, country-specific shocks are still the dominant forces of business cycle dynamics.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-9957.2010.02239.x
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Article provided by University of Manchester in its journal The Manchester School.

Volume (Year): 79 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (03)
Pages: 173-207

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Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:79:y:2011:i:2:p:173-207
DOI: j.1467-9957.2010.02239.x
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  1. Heathcote, J. & Perri, F., 2001. "Financial Globalization and Real Regionalization," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 01-11, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  2. Broadberry,Stephen & O'Rourke,Kevin H., 2010. "The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521708395, Junio.
  3. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S Prasad & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Global Business Cycles; Convergence or Decoupling?," IMF Working Papers 08/143, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Ritschl, Albrecht & Sarferaz, Samad & Uebele, Martin, 2008. "The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-1995: A Dynamic Factor Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7069, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. U. Michael Bergman & Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1998. "Historical evidence on business cycles: the international experience," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun), pages 65-119.
  6. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2005. "Breaks in the Variability and Comovement of G-7 Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 721-740, November.
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