IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The emergence of a European region: Business cycles in South-East Europe from political independence to World War II

  • Matthias Morys
  • Martin Ivanov

Relying on dynamic factor business cycle indices for five South-East European countries (Austria(-Hungary), Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, Serbia/Yugoslavia), we document steadily increasing synchronisation as part of a pan-European business cycle before 1913 and the emergence of a regional business cycle (including and radiating from Germany) in the interwar period. These dynamics were largely driven by trade, involving initially England, France and Germany but increasingly centred on Germany. Our results also show that the Balkan countries travelled a long way from an economic backwater of Europe in the 1870s to a much more integrated part of the European economy six decades later.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.york.ac.uk/media/economics/documents/cherrydiscussionpapers/1301.pdf
File Function: Main text
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by CHERRY, c/o Department of Economics, University of York in its series Centre for Historical Economics and Related Research at York (CHERRY) Discussion Papers with number 13/01.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Nov 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:yor:cherry:13/01
Contact details of provider: Postal: c/o Sue Bowden, Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, United Kingdom
Phone: (0)1904 323776
Fax: (0)1904 323759
Web page: http://www.york.ac.uk/economics/research/research-clusters/cherry/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Craig, Lee A. & Fisher, Douglas, 1992. "Integration of the European business cycle: 1871-1910," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 144-168, April.
  2. Obstfeld, Maurice & Shambaugh, Jay C & Taylor, Alan M., 2004. "The Trilemma in History: Trade-offs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies and Capital Mobility," CEPR Discussion Papers 4352, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. A'Hearn, Brian & Woitek, Ulrich, 2001. "More international evidence on the historical properties of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 321-346, April.
  4. Michael D. Bordo & Thomas F. Helbling, 2011. "International Business Cycle Synchronization In Historical Perspective," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(2), pages 208-238, 03.
  5. Ayhan Kose, M. & Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H., 2008. "Understanding the evolution of world business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 110-130, May.
  6. Guilllaume Daudin, Matthias Morys and Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2008. "Globalization, 1870-1914," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp250, IIIS.
  7. Ivanov, Martin & Tooze, Adam, 2007. "Convergence or Decline on Europe's Southeastern Periphery? Agriculture, Population, and GNP in Bulgaria, 1892 1945," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 67(03), pages 672-703, September.
  8. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics.
  9. Romer, Christina D, 1986. "Is the Stabilization of the Postwar Economy a Figment of the Data?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 314-34, June.
  10. Barry J. Eichengreen & Jeffrey Sachs, 1984. "Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s," NBER Working Papers 1498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Romer, Christina, 1986. "New Estimates of Prewar Gross National Product and Unemployment," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(02), pages 341-352, June.
  12. Aiolfi, Marco & Catão, Luis A.V. & Timmermann, Allan, 2011. "Common factors in Latin America's business cycles," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 212-228, July.
  13. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
  14. Michael Artis & George Chouliarakis & P. K. G. Harischandra, 2011. "Business Cycle Synchronization Since 1880," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(2), pages 173-207, 03.
  15. Kalina Dimitrova & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2006. "Exchange Rate and Inflation: France and Bulgaria in the Interwar Period," ICER Working Papers 34-2006, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
  16. Metz, Rainer, 2009. "Comment on "Stock markets and business cycle comovement in Germany before world war I: Evidence from spectral analysis"," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 58-67, March.
  17. Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521882026 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2001. "Globalization and History: The Evolution of a Nineteenth-Century Atlantic Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262650592, June.
  20. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1992. "International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," Working Papers 92-5, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  21. Albrecht Ritschl & Samad Sarferaz & Martin Uebele, 2008. "The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-1995: Dynamic Factor Analysis vs. Reconstructed National Accounts," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-066, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  22. Artis, Michael J & Chouliarakis, George & Harischandra, PKG, 2011. "Business Cycle Synchronization Since 1880," CEPR Discussion Papers 8347, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Feinstein, Charles H. & Temin, Peter & Toniolo, Gianni, 2008. "The World Economy between the World Wars," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195307559, March.
  24. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
  25. Albrecht Ritschl & Tobias Straumann, 2009. "Business cycles and economic policy, 1914-1945: a survey," Economic History Working Papers 22402, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
  26. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, 07.
  27. Feinstein, Charles H. & Temin, Peter & Toniolo, Gianni, 1997. "The European Economy Between the Wars," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774815, March.
  28. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
  29. Christodoulaki, Olga, 2001. "Industrial growth in Greece between the wars: A new perspective," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 61-89, April.
  30. Broadberry, Stephen & Klein, Alexander, 2011. "When and why did eastern European economies begin to fail? Lessons from a Czechoslovak/UK productivity comparison, 1921-1991," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 37-52, January.
  31. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521708388 is not listed on IDEAS
  32. Morys, Matthias, 2013. "Discount rate policy under the Classical Gold Standard: Core versus periphery (1870s–1914)," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 205-226.
  33. Oskar Morgenstern, 1959. "International Financial Transactions and Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number morg59-1, 07.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:yor:cherry:13/01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Doriana Delfino)

The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Doriana Delfino to update the entry or send us the correct address

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.