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Changes in International Business Cycle Affiliations

  • Erdenebat Bataa
  • Denise R. Osborn
  • Marianne Sensier
  • Dick van Dijk

We investigate changes in international business cycle affiliations using an iterative procedure for detecting system-wide structural breaks. We analyze GDP growth rates in two systems, one with the US, Euro-area, UK and Canada and the other for the Euro-area countries of France, Germany and Italy. We discover that international dynamic interactions change in both the mid-1980s and early 1990s, with such changes being particularly important for studying influences on the aggregate Euro-area. However, contemporaneous (conditional) correlations between these Euro-area countries increase in 1984 and 1998, with a large increase in correlations also evident across the international system during the 1990s.

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File URL: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/medialibrary/economics/discussionpapers/EDP-0924.pdf
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Paper provided by Economics, The University of Manchester in its series The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series with number 0924.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:man:sespap:0924
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