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The International Business Cycle in a Changing World: Volatility and the Propagation of Shocks in the G-7

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  • Pedro Perez
  • Denise Osborn
  • Michael Artis

Abstract

The changing relationships between the G-7 countries are examined through VAR models for quarterly growth, estimated over sub-periods and using a rolling data window. Trivariate models are employed, each including the US and a European (E15) aggregate. The results show that conditional volatility of growth has declined relatively more since 1980 for E15 than for the US, aggregate European shocks have increased impact on “core” European countries from around 1980, the effects of the US on Europe are largest during the 1970s and the late 1990s, and E15 has a steadily increasing impact on the US economy over time. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Perez & Denise Osborn & Michael Artis, 2006. "The International Business Cycle in a Changing World: Volatility and the Propagation of Shocks in the G-7," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 255-279, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:17:y:2006:i:3:p:255-279
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-006-6811-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Bussiere Matthieu & Chudik Alexander & Mehl Arnaud, 2013. "How have global shocks impacted the real effective exchange rates of individual euro area countries since the euro’s creation?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-48, April.
    2. Cesaroni, Tatiana & Maccini, Louis & Malgarini, Marco, 2011. "Business cycle stylized facts and inventory behaviour: New evidence for the Euro area," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 12-24, September.
    3. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2009. "Analyse der Übertragung US-amerikanischer Schocks auf Deutschland auf Basis eines FAVAR," Working Papers 04/2009, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    4. Kühl, Michael, 2008. "Strong comovements of exchange rates: Theoretical and empirical cases when currencies become the same asset," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 76, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    5. Bataa, Erdenebat & Osborn, Denise R. & Sensier, Marianne, 2018. "China's increasing global influence: Changes in international growth linkages," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 194-206.
    6. Olivier Bandt & Catherine Bruneau & Alexis Flageollet, 2006. "Assessing Aggregate Comovements in France, Germany and Italy Using a Non Stationary Factor Model of the Euro Area," Springer Books, in: Convergence or Divergence in Europe?, pages 95-120, Springer.
    7. Seymen, Atilim & Kappler, Marcus, 2009. "The role of structural common and country-specific shocks in the business cycle dynamics of the G7 countries," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-015, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    8. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the Comovements and heterogeneity in the dynamic factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,31, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Angela Abbate & Sandra Eickmeier & Wolfgang Lemke & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "The Changing International Transmission of Financial Shocks: Evidence from a Classical Time‐Varying FAVAR," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 573-601, June.
    10. Martin Schneider & Gerhard Fenz, 2011. "Transmission of business cycle shocks between the US and the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(21), pages 2777-2793.
    11. Erdenebat Bataa & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2009. "Changes in International Business Cycle Affiliations," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0924, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    12. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2007. "Business cycle transmission from the US to Germany--A structural factor approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 521-551, April.
    13. Eickmeier Sandra, 2010. "Analyse der Übertragung US-amerikanischer Schocks auf Deutschland auf Basis eines FAVAR / A FAVAR-based Analysis of the Transmission of US Shocks to Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(5), pages 571-600, October.
    14. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Mr. Andrew J Swiston, 2008. "Spillovers Across NAFTA," IMF Working Papers 2008/003, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Mardi Dungey & Denise Osborn, 2009. "Modelling International Linkages for Large Open Economies: US and Euro Area," CAMA Working Papers 2009-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    16. Erdenebat Bataa & Denise R.Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2016. "China's Increasing Global Influence: Changes in International Growth Spillovers," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 221, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    17. Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Dées, Stéphane, 2007. "The transmission of US cyclical developments to the rest of the world," Working Paper Series 798, European Central Bank.
    18. Michael J. Artis & Mathias Hoffmann, 2008. "Financial Globalization, International Business Cycles and Consumption Risk Sharing," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(3), pages 447-471, September.
    19. Stephane Dees & Arthur Saint-Guilhem, 2011. "The role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 573-591, December.
    20. Gefang Deborah & Strachan Rodney, 2009. "Nonlinear Impacts of International Business Cycles on the U.K. -- A Bayesian Smooth Transition VAR Approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-33, December.
    21. repec:got:cegedp:76 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    european integration; international business cycle; time variation and volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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