IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jns/jbstat/v230y2010i5p571-600.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analyse der Übertragung US-amerikanischer Schocks auf Deutschland auf Basis eines FAVAR / A FAVAR-based Analysis of the Transmission of US Shocks to Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Eickmeier Sandra

    (Deutsche Bundesbank, Economic Research Center, Wilhelm-Epstein-Str. 14, 60431 Frankfurt a.M., Germany)

Abstract

The paper assesses the transmission of US supply, demand and monetary policy shocks between 1976 and 2008 based on a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) which is applied to a newly constructed set of more than 200 German time series. The study not only assesses the transmission of US shocks to German GDP via impulse response analysis but also to a large number of variables capturing the various transmission channels. The inclusion not only of aggregate trade variables but also of variables covering trade with different partner countries/regions helps analyzing more deeply the trade channel, e. g. the role of direct trade versus trade with third countries. Another focus lies on the transmission of US shocks to specific industries such as the car and the machinery industries which were particularly severely affected by the global financial crisis. Finally, the role of US shocks for the most recent downturn in Germany is assessed based on a historical decomposition.

Suggested Citation

  • Eickmeier Sandra, 2010. "Analyse der Übertragung US-amerikanischer Schocks auf Deutschland auf Basis eines FAVAR / A FAVAR-based Analysis of the Transmission of US Shocks to Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(5), pages 571-600, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:230:y:2010:i:5:p:571-600
    DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2010-0505
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2010-0505
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/jbnst-2010-0505?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    2. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Gert Peersman, 2005. "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 185-207.
    5. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "The Transmission of International Shocks: A Factor-Augmented VAR Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 71-100, February.
    6. Ball, Laurence & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1994. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 247-261, March.
    7. Hamburg, Britta & Hoffmann, Mathias & Keller, Joachim, 2005. "Consumption, wealth and business cycles: why is Germany different?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,16, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Britta Hamburg & Mathias Hoffmann & Joachim Keller, 2008. "Consumption, wealth and business cycles in Germany," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 451-476, June.
    9. Pedro Perez & Denise Osborn & Michael Artis, 2006. "The International Business Cycle in a Changing World: Volatility and the Propagation of Shocks in the G-7," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 255-279, July.
    10. Kim, Soyoung, 2001. "International transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Evidence from VAR's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 339-372, October.
    11. Canova, Fabio & de Nicolo, Gianni, 2003. "On the sources of business cycles in the G-7," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 77-100, January.
    12. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
    13. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    15. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2007. "Business cycle transmission from the US to Germany--A structural factor approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 521-551, April.
    16. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December.
    17. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2007. "Global Forces and Monetary Policy Effectiveness," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 429-478, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Andrea Nobili & Stefano Neri, 2006. "The transmission of monetary policy shocks from the US to the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 606, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence from the G-7 Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1219, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
    21. Chamberlain, Gary & Rothschild, Michael, 1983. "Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1281-1304, September.
    22. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-162, April.
    23. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Diffusion Indexes," NBER Working Papers 6702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 91, European Central Bank.
    25. Eickmeier, Sandra & Breitung, Jorg, 2006. "How synchronized are new EU member states with the euro area? Evidence from a structural factor model," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 538-563, September.
    26. Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2011. "International transmission of shocks: a time-varying factor-augmented VAR approach to the open economy," Bank of England working papers 425, Bank of England.
    27. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1998. "Sources and propagation of international output cycles: Common shocks or transmission?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 133-166, October.
    28. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2007. "Some Issues in Using Sign Restrictions for Identifying Structural VARs," NCER Working Paper Series 14, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Salzmann, Leonard, 2020. "The Impact of Uncertainty and Financial Shocks in Recessions and Booms," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224588, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Salzmann, Leonard, 2019. "The Impact of Uncertainty and Financial Shocks in Recessions and Booms," EconStor Preprints 206691, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2009. "Analyse der Übertragung US-amerikanischer Schocks auf Deutschland auf Basis eines FAVAR," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,35, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Sandra Eickmeier, 2009. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the euro area analyzed in a non-stationary dynamic factor model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 933-959.
    3. Angela Abbate & Sandra Eickmeier & Wolfgang Lemke & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "The Changing International Transmission of Financial Shocks: Evidence from a Classical Time‐Varying FAVAR," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 573-601, June.
    4. Claudia M. Buch & Sandra Eickmeier & Esteban Prieto, 2014. "Macroeconomic Factors and Microlevel Bank Behavior," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 715-751, June.
    5. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the Comovements and heterogeneity in the dynamic factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,31, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio M. Conti & Matteo Luciani, 2014. "Do Euro Area Countries Respond Asymmetrically to the Common Monetary Policy?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(5), pages 693-714, October.
    7. Alain Kabundi & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2011. "France in the global economy: a structural approximate dynamic factor model analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 311-342, October.
    8. Eickmeier, Sandra & Hofmann, Boris, 2013. "Monetary Policy, Housing Booms, And Financial (Im)Balances," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 830-860, June.
    9. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2007. "Business cycle transmission from the US to Germany--A structural factor approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 521-551, April.
    10. Matteo Luciani, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 199-218, March.
    11. L. Salzmann, 2018. "China’s Economic Slowdown and International Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 2018.03, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    12. Sandra Eickmeier & Boris Hofmann & Andreas Worms, 2009. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Bank Lending: Evidence for Germany and the Euro Area," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10(2), pages 193-223, May.
    13. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    14. Kemal Bagzibagli, 2014. "Monetary transmission mechanism and time variation in the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 781-823, November.
    15. Mustafa Çakir & Alain Kabundi, 2017. "Transmission of China's Shocks to the BRIS Countries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(3), pages 430-454, September.
    16. Eickmeier, Sandra & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Hofmann, Boris, 2014. "Understanding global liquidity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-18.
    17. Eickmeier, Sandra & Breitung, Jörg, 2005. "How synchronized are central and east European economies with the euro area? Evidence from a structural factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,20, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Salzmann, Leonard, 2020. "China's Economic Slowdown and International Inflation Dynamics," EconStor Preprints 176757, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2020.
    19. Ronayne, David, 2011. "Which Impulse Response Function?," Economic Research Papers 270753, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    20. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2011:i:3:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Eickmeier, Sandra & Breitung, Jorg, 2006. "How synchronized are new EU member states with the euro area? Evidence from a structural factor model," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 538-563, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:230:y:2010:i:5:p:571-600. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.