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Analyse der Übertragung US-amerikanischer Schocks auf Deutschland auf Basis eines FAVAR

  • Eickmeier, Sandra

Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht, wie sich Angebots-, Nachfrage- und geldpolitische Schocks aus den Vereinigten Staaten auf Deutschland übertragen. Dabei wird ein so genanntes Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive Model (FAVAR) auf einen neu zusammengestellten Datensatz mit mehr als 200 deutschen Variablen zwischen 1976 und 2008 angewandt. Die Studie untersucht nicht nur die Übertragung US-amerikanischer Schocks auf das deutsche Bruttoinlandsprodukt mit Hilfe einer Impuls-Antwort-Analyse, sondern auch auf eine Vielzahl weiterer Variablen, die die verschiedenen Transmissionskanäle abbilden. Die Arbeit berücksichtigt insbesondere disaggregierte Handelsvariablen, welche den Handel Deutschlands mit unterschiedlichen Ländern beziehungsweise Regionen abbilden. Dies erlaubt eine detaillierte Analyse des Handelskanals. Ein weiterer Schwerpunkt der Arbeit liegt auf der Übertragung US-amerikanischer Schocks auf bestimmte Branchen, darunter der Maschinenbau und die Automobilindustrie, die von der globalen Finanzkrise besonders stark negativ betroffen waren. Mittels einer historischen Zerlegung wird schließlich der Beitrag US-amerikanischer Schocks zum jüngsten Abschwung in Deutschland abgeschätzt.

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Paper provided by German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung in its series Working Papers with number 04/2009.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:042009
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