Macroeconomic factors and micro-level bank risk
The interplay between banks and the macroeconomy is of key importance for financial and economic stability. We analyze this link using a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) which extends a standard VAR for the U.S. macroeconomy. The model includes GDP growth, inflation, the Federal Funds rate, house price inflation, and a set of factors summarizing conditions in the banking sector. We use data of more than 1,500 commercial banks from the U.S. call reports to address the following questions. How are macroeconomic shocks transmitted to bank risk and other banking variables? What are the sources of bank heterogeneity, and what explains differences in individual banks' responses to macroeconomic shocks? Our paper has two main findings: (i) Average bank risk declines, and average bank lending increases following expansionary shocks. (ii) The heterogeneity of banks is characterized by idiosyncratic shocks and the asymmetric transmission of common shocks. Risk of about 1/3 of all banks rises in response to a monetary loosening. The lending response of small, illiquid, and domestic banks is relatively large, and risk of banks with a low degree of capitalization and a high exposure to real estate loans decreases relatively strongly after expansionary monetary policy shocks. Also, lending of larger banks increases less while risk of riskier and domestic banks reacts more in response to house price shocks.
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 0 69 / 95 66 - 34 55
Fax: 0 69 / 95 66 30 77
Web page: http://www.bundesbank.de/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- De Graeve, F. & Kick, T. & Koetter, M., 2008. "Monetary policy and financial (in)stability: An integrated micro-macro approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 205-231, September.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & George Saravelos, 2010. "Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2007.
"Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty-Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6514, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jiminez, G. & Ongena, S. & Saurina, J., 2007. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy : What do Twenty-three Million Bank Loans Say about the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk?," Discussion Paper 2007-75, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel F.Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2008.
"Structural vector autoregressions: theory of identification and algorithms for inference,"
2008-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Juan F. Rubio-Ram�rez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010. "Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(2), pages 665-696.
- Marcella Lucchetta & Gianni De NicolÃ³, 2010.
"Systemic Risks and the Macroeconomy,"
IMF Working Papers
10/29, International Monetary Fund.
- Del Negro, Marco & Otrok, Christopher, 2007. "99 Luftballons: Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1962-1985, October.
- Martinez-Miera, David & Repullo, Rafael, 2008.
"Does Competition Reduce the Risk of Bank Failure?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6669, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- DellAriccia, Giovanni & Marquez, Robert, 2005.
"Lending Booms and Lending Standards,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5095, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hilde C. Bjørnland & Dag Henning Jacobsen, 2008. "The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the U.S," Working Paper 2008/24, Norges Bank.
- Ard den Reijer, 2007. "Identifying Regional and Sectoral Dynamics of the Dutch Staffing Labour Cycle," DNB Working Papers 153, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:201020. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.