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Identifying Regional and Sectoral Dynamics of the Dutch Staffing Labour Cycle

  • Ard den Reijer

This study analyses the dynamic characteristics of staffing employment across di�erent business sectors and across different geographical regions in the Netherlands. We analyse a micro data set of the market leader of the Dutch staffing employment market, Randstad. We apply the dynamic factor model to extract common information out of a large data set and to isolate business cycle frequencies with the aim of forecasting economic activity. We identify regions and sectors whose cyclical developments lead the staffing labour cycle at the country level. The second question is then which model specification can best exploit the identified leading indicators at the disaggregate level to forecast the country aggregate? The dynamic factor model turns out to outperform univariate benchmark forecasting models by exploiting the substantial temporal variation of the staffing labour market at the disaggregate level.

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Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 153.

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Date of creation: Nov 2007
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:153
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Web page: http://www.dnb.nl/en/

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  2. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
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  11. Christian Schumacher, 2007. "Forecasting German GDP using alternative factor models based on large datasets," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 271-302.
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  14. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2004. "The generalised dynamic factor model: consistency and rates," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10133, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  15. Jamie Peck & Nik Theodore, 2007. "Flexible recession: the temporary staffing industry and mediated work in the United States," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(2), pages 171-192, March.
  16. Lewis Segal & Daniel Sullivan, 1996. "The growth of temporary services work," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  18. Ziegler, Christina & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "How good are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,42, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  19. Ard den Reijer, 2006. "The Dutch business cycle: which indicators should we monitor?," DNB Working Papers 100, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
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