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Macroeconomic fluctuations and bank lending: evidence for Germany and the euro area

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  • Eickmeier, Sandra
  • Hofmann, Boris
  • Worms, Andreas

Abstract

This paper analyzes how bank lending to the private nonbank sector responds dynamically to aggregate supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in Germany and the euro area. The results suggest that the dynamic responses in the two areas are broadly similar, although there are some differences in the relative contribution of the three shocks to the development of output, prices, interest rates and bank loans over time. In order to assess the role of bank lending in the transmission of macroeconomic shocks, we perform counterfactual simulations and analyze the dynamic responses of German loan sub-aggregates in order to test the distributional implications of potential credit market frictions. The results suggest that there is no evidence that loans amplify the transmission of macroeconomic fluctuations or that a "financial accelerator" via bank lending exists.

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  • Eickmeier, Sandra & Hofmann, Boris & Worms, Andreas, 2006. "Macroeconomic fluctuations and bank lending: evidence for Germany and the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,34, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:5098
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    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models > Sign Restrictions

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    Cited by:

    1. Claudia M. Buch & Sandra Eickmeier & Esteban Prieto, 2014. "Macroeconomic Factors and Microlevel Bank Behavior," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 715-751, June.
    2. Jung, Alexander, 2020. "An empirical analysis of loan supply and demand in the euro area," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 187-201.
    3. Tomas Havranek & Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Transmission Lags of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(4), pages 39-76, December.
    4. De Graeve, F. & Kick, T. & Koetter, M., 2008. "Monetary policy and financial (in)stability: An integrated micro-macro approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 205-231, September.
    5. Vít Pošta & Zdeněk Pikhart, 2015. "Financial Risk and Real Variables: Evidence Based on a SVAR Analysis of the Czech Economy," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(5), pages 516-537.
    6. Renée Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-960, December.
    7. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2014. "The interest rate pass-through in the Euro area during the global financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 104-119.
    8. Burgstaller Johann, 2010. "Bank Lending and Monetary Policy Transmission in Austria," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(2), pages 163-185, April.
    9. Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2010. "How resilient is the German banking system to macroeconomic shocks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1839-1848, August.
    10. Carolina Pagliacci, 2019. "Are we ignoring supply shocks? A proposal for monitoring cyclical fluctuations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 445-467, February.
    11. Krainer, Robert E., 2014. "Monetary policy and bank lending in the Euro area: Is there a stock market channel or an interest rate channel?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 283-298.
    12. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2012. "Loan supply shocks during the financial crisis: Evidence for the Euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 569-592.
    13. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:2015:y:2015:i:5:id:513:p:1-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Muellbauer, John & Geiger, Felix & Rupprecht, Manuel, 2016. "The housing market, household portfolios and the German consumer," Working Paper Series 1904, European Central Bank.
    15. Iwedi Marshal, 2017. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Dynamic on Bank Lending Behavior in Nigeria," Noble International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Noble Academic Publsiher, vol. 2(10), pages 131-139, October.
    16. Victor Pontines, 2021. "The real effects of loan-to-value limits: empirical evidence from Korea," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1311-1350, September.
    17. Klaus Abberger & André Kunkel, 2008. "Unternehmen leiden kaum unter Finanzierungsschwierigkeiten durch die Finanzmarktkrise," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(09), pages 29-31, May.
    18. Matthias Balz, 2008. "Branchen im Blickpunkt: Die ökologische Lebensmittelwirtschaft," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(09), pages 23-28, May.
    19. Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubik, 2010. "Procyclicality of the Financial System and Simulation of the Feedback Effect," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2009/2010, chapter 0, pages 110-119, Czech National Bank.
    20. Mokinski, Frieder, 2017. "A severity function approach to scenario selection," Discussion Papers 34/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. Legrand, Romain, 2014. "Euro introduction: Has there been a structural change? Study on 10 European Union countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 136-151.
    22. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:513:p:1-22 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle fluctuations; bank lending; SVAR model; sign restrictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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