IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/cnb/ocpubc/fsr0910-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Procyclicality of the Financial System and Simulation of the Feedback Effect

In: CNB Financial Stability Report 2009/2010

Author

Listed:
  • Adam Gersl
  • Petr Jakubik

Abstract

This article examines procyclicality of the financial system. The introduction describes the natural and regulatory sources of procyclicality, focusing on the potential procyclical effect of the current Basel II regulatory framework for banks. It also mentions the regulatory tools for mitigating procyclical behaviour by financial institutions currently being discussed in international forums. Under certain conditions, procyclical behaviour of the banking sector can lead to a feedback effect whereby banks, in response to an economic downswing, reduce their lending to the economy in order to maintain the required capital adequacy ratio. This then further negatively affects economic output and impacts back on banks in the form of, for example, further growth in non-performing loans. In the main empirical section of the article, this effect was simulated on the example of the Czech banking sector using the current stress-testing system and a single adverse scenario. The simulation results suggest that under certain assumptions the feedback effect may play an important role.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubik, 2010. "Procyclicality of the Financial System and Simulation of the Feedback Effect," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2009/2010, chapter 0, pages 110-119, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnb:ocpubc:fsr0910/3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/financial-stability/.galleries/fs_reports/fsr_2009-2010/FSR_2009-2010_article_3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.cnb.cz/en/financial-stability/thematic-articles-on-financial-stability/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    2. Calza, Alessandro & Gartner, Christine & Sousa, João, 2001. "Modelling the demand for loans to the private sector in the euro area," Working Paper Series 55, European Central Bank.
    3. Koopman, Siem Jan & Kräussl, Roman & Lucas, André & Monteiro, André B., 2009. "Credit cycles and macro fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 42-54, January.
    4. David Aikman & Piergiorgio Alessandri & Bruno Eklund & Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia & Elizabeth Martin & Nada Mora & Gabriel Sterne & Matthew Willison, 2009. "Funding liquidity risk in a quantitative model of systemic stability," Bank of England working papers 372, Bank of England.
    5. Driscoll, John C., 2004. "Does bank lending affect output? Evidence from the U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 451-471, April.
    6. Sandra Eickmeier & Boris Hofmann & Andreas Worms, 2009. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Bank Lending: Evidence for Germany and the Euro Area," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10(2), pages 193-223, May.
    7. Santiago Fernández de Lis & Jorge Martínez Pagés & Jesús Saurina, 2001. "Credit growth, problem loans and credit risk provisioning in Spain," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 331-353, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Mario Quagliariello, 2007. "Banks' riskiness over the business cycle: a panel analysis on Italian intermediaries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 119-138.
    9. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. David Aikman & Piergiorgio Alessandri & Bruno Eklund & Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia & Elizabeth Martin & Nada Mora & Gabriel Sterne & Matthew Willison, 2011. "Funding Liquidity Risk in a Quantitative Model of Systemic Stability," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.),Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 12, pages 371-410, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Mr. Martin Cihak & Ms. Petya Koeva Brooks, 2009. "From Subprime Loans to Subprime Growth? Evidence for the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2009/069, International Monetary Fund.
    12. James Benford & Erlend Nier, 2007. "Financial Stability Paper No 3: Monitoring Cyclicality of Basel II Capital Requirements," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 3, Bank of England.
    13. Jan Frait & Zlatuse Komarkova, 2009. "Instruments for Curbing Fluctuations in Lending over the Business Cycle," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2008/2009, chapter 0, pages 72-81, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    14. A. Calza & C. Gartner & J. Sousa, 2003. "Modelling the demand for loans to the private sector in the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 107-117.
    15. Petr Jakubik & Christian Schmieder, 2008. "Stress Testing Credit Risk: Is the Czech Republic Different from Germany?," Working Papers 2008/9, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    16. Ms. Jodi G Scarlata & Mr. Juan Sole & Alicia Novoa, 2009. "Procyclicality and Fair Value Accounting," IMF Working Papers 2009/039, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Claudio Borio & Philip Lowe, 2001. "To provision or not to provision," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Leroi RAPUTSOANE, 2015. "Alternative Measures of Credit Extension for Countercyclical Buffer Decisions in South Africa," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 210-221, December.
    2. František Brazdik & Michal Hlavacek & Aleš Marsal, 2012. "Survey of Research on Financial Sector Modeling within DSGE Models: What Central Banks Can Learn from It," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(3), pages 252-277, July.
    3. Jakubik, Petr & Moinescu, Bogdan, 2015. "Assessing optimal credit growth for an emerging banking system," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 577-591.
    4. Jan Frait & Zlatuse Komarkova, 2012. "Macroprudential Policy and Its Instruments in a Small EU Economy," Research and Policy Notes 2012/03, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    5. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2011. "Credit Growth and Capital Buffers: Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Research and Policy Notes 2011/02, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    6. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2010. "Conservative Stress Testing: The Role of Regular Verification," Working Papers IES 2010/12, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2008.
    7. Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubik & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "Dynamic Stress Testing: The Framework for Testing Banking Sector Resilience Used by the Czech National Bank," Working Papers 2012/11, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    8. Adam Geršl & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "Credit Growth and Countercyclical Capital Buffers: Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers IES 2012/3, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2012.
    9. Frait, Jan & Gersl, Adam & Seidler, Jakub, 2011. "Credit growth and financial stability in the Czech Republic," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5771, The World Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. R. Brian Langrin & Lavern McFarlane, 2014. "Policy Implications for the Application of Countercyclical Capital Buffers When the Government Borrowing Crowds Out Private Sector Credit: The Case of Jamaica," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 285-312, July-Dece.
    2. Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2010. "How resilient is the German banking system to macroeconomic shocks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1839-1848, August.
    3. Laivi Laidroo, 2014. "Lending Growth and Cyclicality in Central and Eastern European Banks," TUT Economic Research Series 13, Department of Finance and Economics, Tallinn University of Technology.
    4. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner, 2018. "What Do We Know About the Effects of Macroprudential Policy?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 85(340), pages 735-770, October.
    5. Vasiliki Makri, 2016. "Towards an Investigation of Credit Risk Determinants in Eurozone Countries," Journal of Accounting and Management Information Systems, Faculty of Accounting and Management Information Systems, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 27-57, March.
    6. Panayiotis P. Athanasoglou & Ioannis Daniilidis, 2011. "Procyclicality in the banking industry: causes, consequences and response," Working Papers 139, Bank of Greece.
    7. Bethlendi, András, 2007. "A hazai bankok hitelezésiveszteség-elszámolásának vizsgálata [Examination of loan-loss allowance practices by Hungarian banks]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 67-93.
    8. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis P. & Daniilidis, Ioannis & Delis, Manthos D., 2014. "Bank procyclicality and output: Issues and policies," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 58-83.
    9. Krainer, Robert E., 2014. "Monetary policy and bank lending in the Euro area: Is there a stock market channel or an interest rate channel?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 283-298.
    10. Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubik & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "Dynamic Stress Testing: The Framework for Testing Banking Sector Resilience Used by the Czech National Bank," Working Papers 2012/11, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    11. Beck, Roland & Jakubik, Petr & Piloiu, Anamaria, 2013. "Non-performing loans: what matters in addition to the economic cycle?," Working Paper Series 1515, European Central Bank.
    12. Bank for International Settlements, 2010. "Macroprudential instruments and frameworks: a stocktaking of issues and experiences," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 38.
    13. Henrik Andersen, 2009. "Norwegian banks in a recession: Procyclical implications of Basel II," Working Paper 2009/04, Norges Bank.
    14. Andre R. Neveu, 2018. "A survey of network-based analysis and systemic risk measurement," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(2), pages 241-281, July.
    15. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "How to Improve the Quality of Stress Tests through Backtesting," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(4), pages 325-346, August.
    16. Atsushi Ishikawa & Koichiro Kamada & Yoshiyuki Kurachi & Kentaro Nasu & Yuki Teranishi, 2012. "Introduction to the Financial Macro-econometric Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 12-E-1, Bank of Japan.
    17. Miroslav Plasil & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler & Petr Hlavac, 2015. "In the Quest of Measuring the Financial Cycle," Working Papers 2015/05, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    18. Mokinski, Frieder, 2017. "A severity function approach to scenario selection," Discussion Papers 34/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubik & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler, 2013. "Dynamic Stress Testing: The Framework for Assessing the Resilience of the Banking Sector Used by the Czech National Bank," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(6), pages 505-536, December.
    20. Ceyla Pazarbasioglu & Miss Gudrun Johnsen & Mr. Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Ms. Inci Ötker, 2005. "Assessing and Managing Rapid Credit Growth and the Role of Supervisory and Prudential Policies," IMF Working Papers 2005/151, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cnb:ocpubc:fsr0910/3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tomas Karhanek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cnbgvcz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.