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Procyclicality of the Financial System and Simulation of the Feedback Effect

In: CNB Financial Stability Report 2009/2010

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  • Adam Gersl
  • Petr Jakubik

Abstract

This article examines procyclicality of the financial system. The introduction describes the natural and regulatory sources of procyclicality, focusing on the potential procyclical effect of the current Basel II regulatory framework for banks. It also mentions the regulatory tools for mitigating procyclical behaviour by financial institutions currently being discussed in international forums. Under certain conditions, procyclical behaviour of the banking sector can lead to a feedback effect whereby banks, in response to an economic downswing, reduce their lending to the economy in order to maintain the required capital adequacy ratio. This then further negatively affects economic output and impacts back on banks in the form of, for example, further growth in non-performing loans. In the main empirical section of the article, this effect was simulated on the example of the Czech banking sector using the current stress-testing system and a single adverse scenario. The simulation results suggest that under certain assumptions the feedback effect may play an important role.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubik, 2010. "Procyclicality of the Financial System and Simulation of the Feedback Effect," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2009/2010, chapter 0, pages 110-119 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:ocpubc:fsr0910/3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jodi G. Scarlata & Juan Sole & Alicia Novoa, 2009. "Procyclicality and Fair Value Accounting," IMF Working Papers 09/39, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Koopman, Siem Jan & Kräussl, Roman & Lucas, André & Monteiro, André B., 2009. "Credit cycles and macro fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 42-54, January.
    3. David Aikman & Piergiorgio Alessandri & Bruno Eklund & Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia & Elizabeth Martin & Nada Mora & Gabriel Sterne & Matthew Willison, 2011. "Funding Liquidity Risk in a Quantitative Model of Systemic Stability," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.), Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 12, pages 371-410 Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Driscoll, John C., 2004. "Does bank lending affect output? Evidence from the U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 451-471, April.
    5. Sandra Eickmeier & Boris Hofmann & Andreas Worms, 2009. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Bank Lending: Evidence for Germany and the Euro Area," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10, pages 193-223, May.
    6. Mario Quagliariello, 2007. "Banks' riskiness over the business cycle: a panel analysis on Italian intermediaries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 119-138.
    7. Martin Cihak & Petya Koeva Brooks, 2009. "From Subprime Loans to Subprime Growth? Evidence for the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 09/69, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Jan Frait & Zlatuse Komarkova, 2009. "Instruments for Curbing Fluctuations in Lending over the Business Cycle," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2008/2009, chapter 0, pages 72-81 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    9. A. Calza & C. Gartner & J. Sousa, 2003. "Modelling the demand for loans to the private sector in the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 107-117.
    10. Petr Jakubik & Christian Schmieder, 2008. "Stress Testing Credit Risk: Is the Czech Republic Different from Germany?," Working Papers 2008/9, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Leroi RAPUTSOANE, 2015. "Alternative Measures of Credit Extension for Countercyclical Buffer Decisions in South Africa," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 210-221, December.
    2. František Brazdik & Michal Hlavacek & Aleš Marsal, 2012. "Survey of Research on Financial Sector Modeling within DSGE Models: What Central Banks Can Learn from It," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(3), pages 252-277, July.
    3. Jakubik, Petr & Moinescu, Bogdan, 2015. "Assessing optimal credit growth for an emerging banking system," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 577-591.
    4. Jan Frait & Zlatuse Komarkova, 2012. "Macroprudential Policy and Its Instruments in a Small EU Economy," Research and Policy Notes 2012/03, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    5. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2011. "Credit Growth and Capital Buffers: Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Research and Policy Notes 2011/02, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    6. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2010. "Conservative Stress Testing: The Role of Regular Verification," Working Papers IES 2010/12, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2008.
    7. Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubik & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "Dynamic Stress Testing: The Framework for Testing Banking Sector Resilience Used by the Czech National Bank," Working Papers 2012/11, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    8. Adam Geršl & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "Credit Growth and Countercyclical Capital Buffers: Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers IES 2012/3, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2012.
    9. Frait, Jan & Gersl, Adam & Seidler, Jakub, 2011. "Credit growth and financial stability in the Czech Republic," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5771, The World Bank.

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