Banks' riskiness over the business cycle: a panel analysis on Italian intermediaries
A comprehensive investigation is provided on the issue of the possible cyclical nature of banks' behaviour using a large panel of Italian intermediaries over the period 1985 to 2002. Estimating both static and dynamic models, the article investigates whether loan loss provisions and non-performing loans show a cyclical pattern. The econometric results confirm that business cycle affects banks' loan loss provisions and new bad debts. The impact of recessionary conditions is significant and long-lasting. Moreover, the empirical evidence provides some support for the income-smoothing hypothesis. The estimated relations may be employed to carry out stress tests to assess the effects of macroeconomic shocks on banks' balance sheets.
Volume (Year): 17 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2003.
"Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns: too much, too late?,"
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- Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2001. "Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns : too much, too late?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2749, The World Bank.
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- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Ahmed, Anwer S. & Takeda, Carolyn & Thomas, Shawn, 1999. "Bank loan loss provisions: a reexamination of capital management, earnings management and signaling effects," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-25, November.
- Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
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