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Banks' Performance over the Business Cycle: A Panel Analysis on Italian Intermediaries

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  • Mario Quagliariello

Abstract

Supervisors and policy makers pay increasing attention to the possible procyclical nature of banks’ behaviour. Indeed, to guarantee macro and financial stability, it is important to understand if, and to what extent, banks are affected by the macroeconomy and if there are second round effects. This paper provides a comprehensive investigation on these issues using a large dataset of Italian intermediaries over the period 1985-2002. In particular, estimating both static and dynamic models, it investigates whether loan loss provisions, nonperforming loans and the return on assets show a cyclical pattern. The estimated relations are then employed to carry out simple stress tests aiming at assessing the effects of macroeconomic shocks on banks’ balance sheets.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Quagliariello, "undated". "Banks' Performance over the Business Cycle: A Panel Analysis on Italian Intermediaries," Discussion Papers 04/17, Department of Economics, University of York.
  • Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:04/17
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Beckmann, Rainer, 2007. "Profitability of Western European banking systems: panel evidence on structural and cyclical determinants," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,17, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Mario Quagliariello, 2009. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and banks' lending decisions: the case of Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 323-336.
    3. Stefan Hlawatsch & Sebastian Ostrowski, 2009. "Economic Loan Loss Provision and Expected Loss," FEMM Working Papers 09013, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    4. Stefano Puddu, 2013. "Real Sector and Banking System: Real and Feedback Effects. A Non-Linear VAR Approach," IRENE Working Papers 13-01, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    5. Marcucci, Juri & Quagliariello, Mario, 2008. "Is bank portfolio riskiness procyclical: Evidence from Italy using a vector autoregression," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 46-63, February.
    6. Sebastiano Laviola & Juri Marcucci & Mario Quagliariello, 2006. "Stress testing credit risk: experience from the italian FSAP," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 59(238), pages 269-291.
    7. Carlo Brambilla & Giandomenico Piluso, 2007. "Are Banks Procyclical? Evidence from the Italian Case (1890-1973)," Department of Economics University of Siena 523, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    8. Stefano Puddu, 2013. "Optimal Weights and Stress Banking Indexes," IRENE Working Papers 13-02, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    9. Rita Babihuga, 2007. "Macroeconomic and Financial Soundness Indicators; An Empirical Investigation," IMF Working Papers 07/115, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Natalia Podlich & Didar Illyasov & Elena Tsoy & Shynar Shaikh, 2010. "The Methodology of Stress Tests for the Kazakh Banking System," ifo Working Paper Series 85, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    11. Sophocles Vogiazas & Constantinos Alexiou, 2013. "Liquidity And The Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence From The Greek Banking Sector," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 58(199), pages 109-126, October -.
    12. Adam Głogowski, 2008. "Macroeconomic determinants of Polish banks’ loan losses – results of a panel data study," NBP Working Papers 53, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking supervision; loan loss provisions; non-performing loans; procyclicality; stress test;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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