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The Use of Financial Spreads As Indicator Variables: Evidence for the U.K. and Germany

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  • E. P. Davis
  • S. G. B. Henry

Abstract

There has been growing interest in the use of financial spreads as advance indicators of real activity and inflation. Empirical evidence is marshalled on a range of spreads when these are used in vector autoregressive models of the UK and German economies. It is found that they do have significant information, even after allowing for the effects of other influences upon macro-economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • E. P. Davis & S. G. B. Henry, 1994. "The Use of Financial Spreads As Indicator Variables: Evidence for the U.K. and Germany," IMF Working Papers 1994/031, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1994/031
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, 2002. "The Impact of Banking Crises on Money Demand and Price Stability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(3), pages 1-1.
    2. Norman R. Swanson & Nii Ayi Armah, 2011. "Some Variables are More Worthy Than Others: New Diffusion Index Evidence on the Monitoring of Key Economic Indicators," Departmental Working Papers 201115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    3. Smets, Frank & Tsatsaronis, Kostas, 1997. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Economic Activity? Dissecting the Evidence for Germany and the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 1758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. F. Barran & V. Coudert & B. Mojon, 1997. "Interest rates, banking spreads and credit supply: the real effects," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 107-136.
    5. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2004. "Does the Term Structure Predict Australia's Future Output Growth?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 121-144, September.
    6. Mario Quagliariello, "undated". "Banks' Performance over the Business Cycle: A Panel Analysis on Italian Intermediaries," Discussion Papers 04/17, Department of Economics, University of York.
    7. Fernando Barran & Virginie Coudert & Benoît Mojon, 1995. "Taux d'intérêt, spreads, comportement bancaire : les effets sur l'activité réelle," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 46(3), pages 625-634.
    8. Mario Quagliariello, 2006. "Banks� Riskiness Over the Business Cicle: a Panel Analysis on Italian Intermediaries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 599, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Gebhardt Kirschgässner & Marcel Savioz, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Forecasts for Real GDP Growth: An Empirical Investigation for the Federal Republic of Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 2(4), pages 339-365, November.
    10. Andrea Nobili, 2005. "Forecasting Output Growth And Inflation In The Euro Area: Are Financial Spreads Useful?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 544, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Leo Krippner, 2005. "Investigating the Relationships between the Yield Curve, Output and Inflation using an Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/02, University of Waikato.
    12. ALAM Nafis & TAN Ee Chain, 2012. "Impact Of Financial Crisis On Stock Returns: Evidence From Singapore," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 7(2), pages 5-19, August.

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