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Taux d'intérêt, spreads, comportement bancaire : les effets sur l'activité réelle

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  • Fernando Barran
  • Virginie Coudert
  • Benoît Mojon

Abstract

[eng] Interest rates, banking spreads and credit supply : the real effects. In a standard ISLM model, the effects of monetary policy work through the demand for money and the (unique) interest rate. In fact, shocks of monetary policy will affect the relative structure of interest rates. In this paper we analyse the information content of the relative structure of interest rates on economic activity. Over and above currently defi­ned spreads, we have defined spreads based on bank interest rates. A major conclusion is that these banking spreads are informative about economic activity, even though the relationship between financial aggregates and real activity has weakened. This seems to confirm the important role that banks play in economic activity. [fre] Alors que la relation entre agrégats monétaires et activité économique se dégrade, les estimations empiriques montrent que les spreads de taux d'intérêt sont de bons indicateurs avancés de l'activité. Nous testons ici le pouvoir prédictif des spreads de taux d'intérêt bancaires en les comparant aux agrégats monétai­res, aux taux d'intérêt et aux spreads de marché généralement utilisés dans la lit­térature. Les arguments avancés pour justifier leur utilisation sont fondés sur le comportement bancaire tel qu'il apparaît dans le canal de transmission de la poli­tique monétaire par le crédit. À l'aide de tests de causalité, nous établissons le caractère prédictif de ces spreads bancaires dans les pays du G5.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Barran & Virginie Coudert & Benoît Mojon, 1995. "Taux d'intérêt, spreads, comportement bancaire : les effets sur l'activité réelle," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 46(3), pages 625-634.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1995_num_46_3_409671
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1995.409671
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    References listed on IDEAS

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