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The provisioning experience of the major UK banks: a small panel investigation

  • Darren Pain
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    Using panel regression analysis, the factors that may help to explain increases in loan-loss provisions for the major UK banks are investigated. Explanatory variables reviewed include aggregate variables such as GDP growth as well as bank-specific factors such as the composition of the loan portfolio. The main findings are that a number of macroeconomic variables can indeed inform about banks' provisions, in particular real GDP growth, real interest rates and lagged aggregate lending growth. Bank-specific behaviour is also important - increased lending to riskier sectors, such as commercial property companies, has generally been associated with higher provisions.

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    File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/workingpapers/2003/wp177.pdf
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    Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 177.

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    Date of creation: Feb 2003
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    Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:177
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    1. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 1999. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," CEPR Discussion Papers 2325, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    8. Joseph P. Hughes & Loretta J. Mester & Choon-Geol Moon, 2000. "Are Scale Economies in Banking Elusive or Illusive?," Departmental Working Papers 200004, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    9. Petersen, Mitchell A & Rajan, Raghuram G, 1994. " The Benefits of Lending Relationships: Evidence from Small Business Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 3-37, March.
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    11. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57 Bank for International Settlements.
    12. E P Davis, 1993. "Bank Credit Risk," Bank of England working papers 8, Bank of England.
    13. William R. Keeton & Charles S. Morris, 1988. "Loan losses and bank risk-taking: is there a connection?," Research Working Paper 88-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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    15. Cavallo, Michele & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2001. "Do Banks provision for bad loans in good times? empirical evidence and policy implications," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2619, The World Bank.
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