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Loan growth and loan quality: some preliminary evidence from Texas banks

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  • Robert T. Clair

Abstract

Following the failures of depository institutions in the 1980s, many analysts concluded that the rapid growth of lending activity and the deterioration of loan quality were related. Robert T. Clair tests this relationship after separating loan growth by its source: increased lending to new or existing customers, bank mergers, and acquisitions of failed banks. The preliminary evidence suggests that additional lending to new or existing customers beyond what might be normal at a given stage of the business cycle lowers loan quality after a three-year lag. This relationship, based on evidence from Texas banks, was especially strong at banks with below-average capitalization. ; Not all loan growth, however, will lead to lower loan quality. Loan growth during an economic expansion is to be expected as loan demand increases. Furthermore, well-capitalized banks were able to grow very rapidly and maintain loan quality. ; One method of increasing lending while maintaining loan quality was through the purchase of failed banks with the assistance of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). Of course, these purchases increased lending only for the acquiring banks and did not reflect an increase in total lending for the banking industry. Furthermore, it is possible that FDIC resolution procedures have discouraged the acquisition of weak but still solvent banks by stronger banks and are thereby slowing the rate of needed consolidation in the banking industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert T. Clair, 1992. "Loan growth and loan quality: some preliminary evidence from Texas banks," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 9-22.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1992:i:qiii:p:9-22
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    File URL: http://dallasfed.org/assets/documents/research/er/1992/er9203b.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Santiago Fernández de Lis & Jorge Martínez Pagés & Jesús Saurina, 2001. "Credit growth, problem loans and credit risk provisioning in Spain," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 331-353 Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Bikker, J.A. & Metzemakers, P.A.J., 2005. "Bank provisioning behaviour and procyclicality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 141-157, April.
    3. Niu, Jijun, 2016. "Loan growth and bank valuations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 185-191.
    4. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Vouldis, Angelos T. & Metaxas, Vasilios L., 2012. "Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1012-1027.
    5. Jesús Saurina-Salas, 1998. "Determinantes de la morosidad de las cajas de ahorro españolas," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 22(3), pages 393-426, September.
    6. Love, Inessa & Turk Ariss, Rima, 2014. "Macro-financial linkages in Egypt: A panel analysis of economic shocks and loan portfolio quality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 158-181.
    7. Jacob A. Bikker & Paul A. J. Metzemakers, 2007. "Is Bank Capital Procyclical? A Cross-Country Analysis," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 40(2), pages 225-264.
    8. Robert Kelly & Kieran Mcquinn & Rebecca Stuart, 2011. "Exploring the Steady-State Relationship Between Credit and GDP for a Small Open Economy–The Case Of Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 42(4), pages 455-477.
    9. Foos, Daniel & Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2010. "Loan growth and riskiness of banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2929-2940, December.
    10. Darren Pain, 2003. "The provisioning experience of the major UK banks: a small panel investigation," Bank of England working papers 177, Bank of England.
    11. Chakravarty, Sugato & Pylypiv, Mariya I., 2015. "The Role of Subsidization and Organizational Status on Microfinance Borrower Repayment Rates," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 737-748.
    12. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    13. Martín Vallcorba & Javier Delgado, 2007. "Determinantes de la morosidad bancaria en una economía dolarizada. El caso uruguayo," Working Papers 0722, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    14. Christophe Godlewski, 2004. "Excess Credit Risk and Bank’s Default Risk An Application of Default Prediction’s Models to Banks from Emerging Market Economies," Finance 0409028, EconWPA.
    15. repec:eee:jbfina:v:87:y:2018:i:c:p:411-426 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Zhang, Dayong & Cai, Jing & Dickinson, David G. & Kutan, Ali M., 2016. "Non-performing loans, moral hazard and regulation of the Chinese commercial banking system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 48-60.
    17. Vicente Salas & Jesús Saurina, 2002. "Credit Risk in Two Institutional Regimes: Spanish Commercial and Savings Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 22(3), pages 203-224, December.
    18. Adam Głogowski, 2008. "Macroeconomic determinants of Polish banks’ loan losses – results of a panel data study," NBP Working Papers 53, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    19. Chaibi, Hasna & Ftiti, Zied, 2015. "Credit risk determinants: Evidence from a cross-country study," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-16.
    20. Hess, Kurt & Feng, Gary, 2007. "Is there market discipline for New Zealand non-bank financial institutions?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 326-340, October.

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    Keywords

    Bank failures ; Bank loans;

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