Determinantes de la morosidad bancaria en una economía dolarizada. El caso uruguayo
This paper examines the determinants of the non-performing loans ratio of Uruguayan banks and studies the existence of cointegration relationships between this ratio and a set of macroeconomic variables. Authors find evidence of the existence of a relationship between non-performing loans ratio, variation of wages measured in dollars and interest rates. The paper concludes that lower wages and higher rates lead to a higher default ratio in the long term. This conclusion emphasizes the importance of the exchange-rate risk over the credit risk in such economies with dollarized banking systems. The estimated model is then used to simulate the effects of several hypothetical stress scenarios on defaulted loans ratio. As a result of this exercise, the paper concludes that the Uruguayan banking system presents nowadays a more solid position than during the period before the 2002 crisis.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.bde.es/|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Wadhwani, Sushil B, 1986. "Inflation, Bankruptcy, Default Premia and the Stock Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(381), pages 120-38, March.
- Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Raghuram Rajan & Enrica Detragiache, 2005.
"The Real Effect of Banking Crises,"
IMF Working Papers
05/63, International Monetary Fund.
- Daniel C. Hardy & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1999. "Determinants and Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Further Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1.
- Manove, M. & Padilla, A.J., 1997.
"Banking (Conservatively) with Optimists,"
9718, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
- János Kornai & Eric Maskin & Gérard Roland, 2003.
"Understanding the Soft Budget Constraint,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 1095-1136, December.
- J. Kornai & E. Maskin & G. Roland., 2004. "Understanding the Soft Budget Constraint," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 11.
- J. Kornai & E. Maskin & G. Roland., 2004. "Understanding the Soft Budget Constraint," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 12.
- Sherrill Shaffer, 1997.
"The winner's curse in banking,"
97-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- De Nicolo, Gianni & Honohan, Patrick & Ize, Alain, 2003.
"Dollarization of the banking system : good or bad?,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
3116, The World Bank.
- Robert T. Clair, 1992. "Loan growth and loan quality: some preliminary evidence from Texas banks," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 9-22.
- Raghuram G. Rajan, 1994. "Why Bank Credit Policies Fluctuate: A Theory and Some Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(2), pages 399-441.
- Hoggarth, Glenn & Reis, Ricardo & Saporta, Victoria, 2002.
"Costs of banking system instability: Some empirical evidence,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 825-855, May.
- Glenn Hoggarth & Ricardo Reis & Victoria Saporta, 2001. "Costs of banking system instability: some empirical evidence," Bank of England working papers 144, Bank of England.
- Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004.
"Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
- Brookes, Martin & Dicks, Mike & Pradhan, Mahmood, 1994. "An empirical model of mortgage arrears and repossessions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 134-144, April.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987.
"Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Banerjee, Anindya & Hendry, David F, 1992. "Testing Integration and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 225-55, August.
- Solttila, Heikki & Vihriälä, Vesa, 1994. "Finnish banks' problem assets : Result of unfortunate asset structure of too rapid growth?," Research Discussion Papers 23/1994, Bank of Finland.
- O. Emre Ergungor & James B. Thomson, 2005. "Systemic banking crises," Policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Feb.
- Luis Fernando Escobar Patiño, 2003. "Efectos de las variaciones del tipo de cambio sobre las actividades de intermediación financiera de Bolivia 1990-2003," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 6(1), pages 73-121, June.
- Simon Kwan & Robert Eisenbeis, 1997. "Bank Risk, Capitalization, and Operating Efficiency," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 12(2), pages 117-131, October.
- Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2004. "Collateral, type of lender and relationship banking as determinants of credit risk," Working Papers 0414, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Asli DemirgÃ¼Ã§-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
- Vicente Salas & Jesús Saurina, 2002. "Credit Risk in Two Institutional Regimes: Spanish Commercial and Savings Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 22(3), pages 203-224, December.
- Jimenez, Gabriel & Saurina, Jesus, 2004. "Collateral, type of lender and relationship banking as determinants of credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2191-2212, September.
- Solttila, Heikki & Vihriälä, Vesa, 1994. "Finnish Banks' Problem Assets: Result of Unfortunate Asset Structure or Too Rapid Growth?," Research Discussion Papers 23/1994, Bank of Finland.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Catarina Figueira & John Glen & Joseph Nellis, 2005. "A Dynamic Analysis of Mortgage Arrears in the UK Housing Market," Urban/Regional 0509006, EconWPA.
- Brad Setser & Nouriel Roubini & Christian Keller & Mark Allen & Christoph B. Rosenberg, 2002. "A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 02/210, International Monetary Fund.
- Marco Sorge, 2004. "Stress-testing financial systems: an overview of current methodologies," BIS Working Papers 165, Bank for International Settlements.
- Brenda GonzÃ¡lez-Hermosillo & Ceyla PazarbaÅŸioÄŸlu & Robert Billings, 1997. "Determinants of Banking System Fragility: A Case Study of Mexico," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(3), pages 295-314, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0722. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (María Beiro. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.