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Ciclo crediticio y acelerador cambiario: evidencia empírica y consecuencias para la regulación prudencial

Listed author(s):
  • Renzo Jiménez Sotelo

En este trabajo se pone en evidencia el mecanismo amplificador que tiene la evolución del tipo de cambio sobre el ciclo crediticio en una economía con alta dolarización financiera, un mecanismo que se puede denominar «acelerador cambiario». En este contexto, la natural prociclicidad entre el ciclo económico y el ciclo crediticio pasa a un segundo plano, si es que no se esvanece. El documento desarrolla el marco teórico que sustenta el mecanismo de transmisión y muestra algunos hechos estilizados del sistema crediticio peruano. A continuación se plantea un modelo econométrico con datos de panel para estimar el efecto del acelerador cambiario sobre la evolución de la mora crediticia en las entidades del sistema. A partir de estos resultados empíricos, y bajo la filosofía de Basilea II, se discute la forma de implementar, en los bancos y demás entidades de crédito, una regulación prudencial que requiera la asignación de provisiones y de capital para el riesgo crediticio derivado del riesgo cambiario originado por los créditos en moneda extranjera. La idea básica es promover la internalización de las externalidades producidas por este factor de riesgo no diversificable.

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File URL: http://revistas.pucp.edu.pe/index.php/economia/article/view/587/585
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Article provided by Fondo Editorial de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú in its journal Revista Economía.

Volume (Year): 33 (2010)
Issue (Month): 65 ()
Pages: 133-176

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Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucrev:y:2010:i:65:p:133-176
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Av. Universitaria 1801, San Miguel, Lima, Perú

Phone: 626-2000 ext. 4950
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Web page: http://departamento.pucp.edu.pe/economia/
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  1. Berger, Allen N. & Udell, Gregory F., 2004. "The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behavior," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 458-495, October.
  2. Jiménez Sotelo, Renzo, 2001. "Perú: Una economía estrangulada por el descalce entre la dolarización de los pasivos financieros y la solarización del poder adquisitivo de sus agentes económicos
    [Peru: An economy strangled by the
    ," MPRA Paper 26615, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Dec 2001.
  3. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
  4. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  5. Guttentag, Jack & Herring, Richard, 1984. " Credit Rationing and Financial Disorder," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1359-1382, December.
  6. Luis Carranza & Juan M. Cayo & José E. Galdón-Sánchez, 2003. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Performance in Peru: A Firm Level Analysis," Faculty Working Papers 12/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  7. Eduardo Moron & Juan F. Castro & Diego Winkelried, 2004. "Assessing Financial Vulnerability in Partially Dollarized Economies," International Finance 0406002, EconWPA.
  8. Raghuram G. Rajan, 1994. "Why Bank Credit Policies Fluctuate: A Theory and Some Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(2), pages 399-441.
  9. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
  10. Jiménez Sotelo, Renzo, 2003. "Riesgo crediticio derivado del riesgo cambiario: Perspectiva de una Economía Latinoamericana Parcialmente Dolarizada
    [Derivative credit risk from exchange risk: Perspective of a partially dollarize
    ," MPRA Paper 26836, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Allen N. Berger, 2003. "The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality on bank lending behavior," Proceedings 845, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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