Exploring the Steady-State Relationship between Credit and GDP for a Small Open Economy - The Case of Ireland
The rapid increase in credit in an economy is now commonly perceived to be one of the leading in- dicators of financial instability. This view has been reinforced by the aftermath of the international financial crisis, which commenced in mid-2007. A key policy response has been to focus on the ratio of private sector credit to GDP for an economy, observing, in particular, significant deviations be- tween the actual and long-run trends of the ratio. This paper examines the issue of the steady-state relationship between private sector credit and GDP in the case of Ireland, a country which, even by international standards, experienced a sizeable expansion in credit over the past 10 years.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (01) 671 6666
Fax: (01) 671 6561
Web page: http://www.centralbank.ieEmail:
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993.
"A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
- Tom Doan, . "SWDOLS: RATS procedure to estimate cointegrating vectors using dynamic OLS," Statistical Software Components RTS00207, Boston College Department of Economics.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Asli DemirgÃ¼Ã§-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001.
"Lending Booms: Latin America and the World,"
NBER Working Papers
8249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Markus Eller & Michael Frömmel & Nora Srzentic, 2010. "Private Sector Credit in CESEE: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Run Dynamics," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 50-78.
- Egert, Balázs & Backé, Peter & Zumer, Tina, 2006.
"Credit growth in Central and Eastern Europe: new (over)shooting stars?,"
Working Paper Series
0687, European Central Bank.
- Peter Backé & Balázs Égert, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 112-139.
- McQuinn, Kieran & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2006. "Assessing the Role of Income and Interest Rates in Determining House Prices," Research Technical Papers 15/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999.
"Currency and Banking Crises; The Early Warnings of Distress,"
IMF Working Papers
99/178, International Monetary Fund.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1998. "Currency and banking crises: the early warnings of distress," International Finance Discussion Papers 629, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2009. "'Real time'early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: a role for global liquidity," Working Paper Series 1039, European Central Bank.
- William R. Keeton, 1999. "Does faster loan growth lead to higher loan losses?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 57-75.
- Addison-Smyth, Diarmaid & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2009.
"Modelling Credit in the Irish Mortgage Market,"
The Economic and Social Review,
Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(4), pages 371-392.
- Vicente Salas & Jesús Saurina, 2002. "Credit Risk in Two Institutional Regimes: Spanish Commercial and Savings Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 203-224, December.
- McQuinn, Kieran & O' Reilly, Gerard, 2007. "A Model of Cross-Country House Prices (228.91 KB PDF)," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/07, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003.
"Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
- Tom Doan, . "BAIPERRON: RATS procedure to perform Bai-Perron Test for Multiple Structural Changes," Statistical Software Components RTS00013, Boston College Department of Economics.
- BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate examples of Bai-Perron procedure," Statistical Software Components RTZ00008, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "MULTIPLEBREAKS: RATS procedure to perform multiple structural change analysis," Statistical Software Components RTS00138, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Rajan, Raghuram G, 1994. "Why Bank Credit Policies Fluctuate: A Theory and Some Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 399-441, May.
- repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2010:i:2:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
- DellAriccia, Giovanni & Marquez, Robert, 2005.
"Lending Booms and Lending Standards,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5095, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997.
"Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1701-27, November.
- Trevor Fitzpatrick & Kieran Mcquinn, 2007.
"House Prices And Mortgage Credit: Empirical Evidence For Ireland,"
University of Manchester, vol. 75(1), pages 82-103, 01.
- Fitzpatrick, Trevor & McQuinn, Kieran, 2004. "House Prices and Mortgage Credit: Empirical Evidence for Ireland," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/04, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Philip R Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2011.
"The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis,"
IMF Economic Review,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 59(1), pages 77-110, April.
- Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 2010. "The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis," IMF Working Papers 10/171, International Monetary Fund.
- Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2010. "The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp333, IIIS.
- Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2010. "The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7954, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
- Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010.
"Credit and banking in a DSGE model of the euro area,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
740, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, 09.
- Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
- Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Leonardo Gambacorta & Gabriel Jiminez & Carlos Trucharte, 2010. "Countercyclical capital buffers: exploring options," BIS Working Papers 317, Bank for International Settlements.
- Huw Pill & Mahmood Pradhan, 1995. "Financial Indicators and Financial Change in Africa and Asia," IMF Working Papers 95/123, International Monetary Fund.
- Robert T. Clair, 1992. "Loan growth and loan quality: some preliminary evidence from Texas banks," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 9-22.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:1/rt/11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard Smith)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.