Private Sector Credit in CESEE: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Run Dynamics
This paper provides an analysis of the long- and short-run determinants of domestic bank lending to the private sector in eleven Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries. We identify regime shifts for the observation period of 1997 to 2009, and the resulting subperiods are characterized by a different impact of the credit growth determinants. Estimating a credit demand equation as the long-term relation, we find – for most countries – a cointegration relationship with economic activity. We then examine the shortrun dynamics by applying both a linear and a nonlinear (Markov-switching) error correction model. While there is a significant correlation between credit growth and supply factors, namely bank deposits and banks’ equity, its impact differs across the subperiods. Identified regime switches in the short-run relation are driven primarily by differences in the credit supply factors rather than by the adjustment toward the credit equilibrium as the error correction coefficients show only slight cross-regime differences. In terms of regime switching, we distinguish between two groups of countries: those with one dominant regime, which is only briefly interrupted by a second one, and those with two equally pronounced regimes. In the latter group, a marked switch occurred just before or when the global crisis hit the CESEE region in the latter part of 2008. This regime shift is associated with a decreased correlation between deposit and credit growth.
Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria|
Phone: +43/1/404 20 7405
Fax: +43/1/404 20 7499
Web page: http://www.oenb.at
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Documentation Management and Communications Services, Otto-Wagner Platz 3, A-1090 Vienna, Austria|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997.
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
- Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 1995. "Credit Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, "undated". "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Ryo Kato, 2003. "Matlab code for Kiyotaki-Moore credit cycles," QM&RBC Codes 113, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Mackinnon, J.G. & Haug, A.A. & Michelis, L., 1996.
"Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration,"
96a09, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
- MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
- James G. MacKinnon & Alfred A. Haug & Leo Michelis, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Working Papers 1996_07, York University, Department of Economics.
- Kim, C-J., 1991.
"Dynamic Linear Models with Markov-Switching,"
91-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
- Brzoza-Brzezina, Michal, 2005. "Lending booms in the new EU Member States: will euro adoption matter?," Working Paper Series 0543, European Central Bank.
- Dewachter, Hans, 2001. "Can Markov switching models replicate chartist profits in the foreign exchange market?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 25-41, February.
- Lütkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti & Trenkler, Carsten, 2000.
"Maximum eigenvalue versus trace tests for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
2000,83, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Helmut Lütkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen & Carsten Trenkler, 2001. "Maximum eigenvalue versus trace tests for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(2), pages 1-8.
- Sylvia Kaufmann & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2008. "Bank lending in Germany and the UK: are there differences between a bank-based and a market-based country?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 266-279.
- Hall, Stephen & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1997. "Switching error-correction models of house prices in the United Kingdom," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-527, October.
- Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
- Azariadis, Costas & Smith, Bruce, 1998. "Financial Intermediation and Regime Switching in Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 516-536, June.
- René Garcia, 1995.
"Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- Garcia, Rene, 1998. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 763-788, August.
- Fase, M. M. G., 1995. "The demand for commercial bank loans and the lending rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 99-115, January.
- Adolfo Barajas & Roberto Steiner, 2002. "Why Don't They Lend? Credit Stagnation in Latin America," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 156-184.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, September.
- Chen, Nan-Kuang, 2001. "Bank net worth, asset prices and economic activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 415-436, October.
- Scheinkman, Jose A & Weiss, Laurence, 1986. "Borrowing Constraints and Aggregate Economic Activity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(1), pages 23-45, January.
- Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2004. "On Markov error-correction models, with an application to stock prices and dividends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 69-88.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2010:i:2:b:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Markus Eller)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.